Overview of the world’s major financial markets from November 19, 2014

On Wednesday, the stock indices around the world have demonstrated contradictory dynamics under the influence of minutes of meetings of the two central banks, as well as other economic reports. Japan’s Nikkei at the end of trading day almost did not move. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed trading again by 0.6% lower. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE lost 0.19%, German DAX — added 0.17%, while the NASDAQ and DJIA weakened as a result of protocol FOMC.

Foreign exchange market expectation lived publication of the protocol of the last meeting of the FOMC, and waiting broke off. The fact that the text «minutes» showed that the number of aggressive representatives are still not so great, and it put pressure on the US dollar initially. However, after some time the market remembered that at the moment there are no alternatives to USD, and all the «back to square one.» USD / JPY from the opening level of 116.84 reached another multi-year high 118.07, ending trading at 117.94. EUR / USD made attempts to break through 1.26, but came back to 1.2540 at the close. GBP / USD rebounded from 1.5588 European low not seen since September 2013 and was restored in the area of 1.5670 at the close. Minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England was pleased though that were made allusions to further recovery of the labor market, which can rapidly accelerate inflation. Meanwhile, USD / RUB started the day at relatively high levels in an attempt to break above 47.00, but in the end of the trading session, slipped to 46.69.

The oil market is attempting to stabilize, as conversations that Ecuador and Venezuela will perform for the decline in production within OPEC meeting, do not stop. Despite the low weight of these countries — in terms of total production, they are comparable to the spare capacity of Saudi Arabia — rumors constrain quotes «black gold» from further decline. Brent yesterday opened trading at $ 78.41 a barrel, then made an unsuccessful attempt to break the resistance 79.40, and went to the area of $ 78.17 at the close.

Precious metals were moving under the influence of technical factors and the published protocol of the last meeting of the FOMC. XAU / USD opened the bidding at $ 1195.99, try again on Tuesday to break through $ 1,200 and slipped into the area in 1175 after the failure, ending trading at $ 10 above. Meanwhile, XAG / USD from the opening level of 16.14 to 16.52 matured, but fell back to 16.10 at the close.

Forecast for Thursday, November 20

Stock market

Pay attention to the dynamics of the index DAX — recent reports from Germany gave hope that Europe’s largest economy experienced a «geopolitical shock» and gradually begins to recover. It is possible that the ECB’s efforts to stimulate the economy by various non-traditional instruments began to bear fruit. Thus, the German index reached an annual minimum in mid-October at around 8349.5, and perhaps it is this point was «down» for the benchmark. Today, the stock index could get an additional reason for the growth in the form of data on business activity of the eurozone countries. All attention will be focused on the German PMI — if index exceeded predicted values, so the recovery process is really running and DAX may target the new 9700 mark.

Commodities

Despite the fact that Brent for several days unsuccessfully trying to get back above $ 80 per barrel, the chances that these attempts succeed, grow. The market rumors that the upcoming OPEC meeting in Vienna still dare to cut production volumes. Talking about it and analysts Morgan Stanley, and a representative of Libya in the cartel. Yesterday Samir Kamal said that OPEC should cut output by 500 thousand barrels per day. It is likely that something similar really will be announced at a meeting on November 27, and even if it will affect only 500 thousand barrels, it still will be a major factor for the restoration of quotations Brent above $ 80 per barrel. In this case, the immediate goal on the way up can be a region 82,10.

Foreign exchange market

EUR / USD since early November launched a movement that seems to be «bottomed» in the region of 2-year low of 1.2350. However, the reason for the reversal pair could become not only technical factors as oversold the single currency. Its role could play and the latest reports from the euro zone, which confirmed that the third quarter GDP remained in positive territory, signaling a weak, but the growth of the region instead of rolling off the threat of «technical recession.» In addition, the study confirmed the German ZEW economic sentiment spike, which may indicate that the worst for the export-oriented countries are already behind.

Today should pay special attention to data on business activity in the manufacturing and service sector eurozone countries. If the reports from Germany exceeded forecasts, EUR / USD will be able to consolidate above 1.26.

USD / RUB is under pressure from the start of the week, due to the approximation of the tax period and calming comments of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina. Steam and could not break the resistance 47.00, which is also a good signal for the further strengthening of the Russian ruble. An additional factor supporting the currency may become a potential recovery in oil prices on the eve of OPEC meeting, scheduled for November 27. The immediate objective on the way down for a couple may be at around 46.00.

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Overview of the world's major financial markets from November 19, 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners