Overview of the world’s major financial markets from November 18, 2014

Stock markets around the world have demonstrated positive dynamics, with the exception of trading platforms in China. On the face of disappointment from the implementation of the mechanism of cross-trading between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges, or a standard situation «sell the fact». Thus, the Japanese Nikkei at the end of trading day up 1.2%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed trading 1.7% lower. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE rose by 0.56%, German DAX — by 0.61% at the output of positive economic data, and NASDAQ and DJIA joined the general optimism.

In the currency market rumors of Japanese theme yesterday was closed, as Prime Minister Abe confirmed that the second increase in the sales tax will be delayed, and that the lower house of parliament will be dissolved. USD / JPY once again gone above 117, and again briefly. The fact that the market is waiting for promises of additional stimulus, and Abe hinted that his «three arrows» is already producing results, so long as new solutions will not follow. This led to a couple of 116.60 at the close. EUR / USD back above 1.25, thanks to unexpectedly strong data on the index of economic expectations ZEW, which reached a 4-month high. GBP / USD kept a low profile, trading under the 40-point range. Meanwhile, USD / RUB decline beginning in the morning, going below the support 47.00 and noting the 5-day low at 46.53.

Oil Prices prefer to behave carefully, choosing to rather narrow trading ranges. In the markets continue to walk the talk about the fact that Venezuela and Russia will make joint efforts to limit the drop in energy prices. Brent yesterday opened trading at $ 79.07 a barrel, then made an unsuccessful attempt to break the resistance 80.00, and went to the area of $ 78.40 at the close.

Precious metals have received yesterday a double support «facts» in the form of growth of Russian gold reserves and «rumors» about the possible purchase of «safe assets» European Central Bank. XAU / USD opened the bidding at $ 1,186.90, reached the November high of $ 1,204.62, but failed to gain a foothold above and rolled into the area at the close of 1194.55. Meanwhile, XAG / USD from the opening level of 16.13 to 16.39 matured, but weakened to 16.20 at the close.

Forecast for Wednesday, November 19

Stock market

Today the attention of the US market can attract publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the Operations Committee on the Federal Open Market (FOMC). Recall that the very meeting held on 28-29 October, has caused a storm of emotions among investors, supporting demand for the US dollar and pushing the US stock market. DJIA and the NASDAQ in the day broke many days growth bands, and it can re-adjust from the current maximums under the influence of new news from the Fed. If the protocol will contain additional interesting details about the US economic outlook, and will hint at a more speedy recovery of the growth rate, it can take away from the NASDAQ and DJIA about one percent. In favor of correction is the fact that the indices are updated almost daily record highs, and even without the FOMC minutes are ready to leave the overbought zone.

Commodities

Yesterday gold made an attempt to break through the strong resistance of $ 1,200 per ounce and noted nearly 3-week high. This went a long way wave of rumors about the growing demand for the precious metal. First, it became known that Russia this year bought about 150 tons of gold, and does not intend to stop there. Secondly, there were rumors that the ECB may decide to buy the precious metal. The fact that in a recent speech, Mario Draghi hinted that he might go to the purchase of various asset classes in order to limit the fall in prices and stimulate economic growth. Theoretically, among the goals of the purchase may be gold.

Nevertheless, it is worth to note that even in the face of a large number of arguments in favor of buying the precious metal, breaking the mark of $ 1,200 per ounce was not confirmed. If the next few days trying to break and fail, it is possible to wait for large-scale sales XAU / USD with a view at around $ 1,170 and $ 1,145 to continue.

Foreign exchange market

GBP / USD today can again attract attention with the publication of two reports of central banks — the Bank of England first and then the Fed. It should be noted that to the protocol of the British Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) attention is not so close, as published last week inflation report, together with the comments of Mark Carney left no doubt about the attitude of the monetary authorities. The only scenario in which we are waiting for a sharp drop in pairs — if the number of aggressive representatives MPC reduced. At the moment these two. Nevertheless, even in the event of loss of 50 points in this report, the couple can recover quickly, as already so oversold that even does not respond to another batch of weak reports or pessimistic forecasts.

The second test will be published for a couple of minutes of the meeting in the evening FOMC, which the Fed has completed the program QE3, increased its estimate of the labor market, but left the phrase «extended period» of low interest rates and expressed concerns about low inflation. It is likely that all of these abstracts will be discussed in more detail under the current protocol and can be re-stir a wave of interest in the US dollar. In this case, GBP / USD may continue to move into the area and try to break through 1.56 below, but at current levels downside is limited.

In general, the pair may be noted that the «bottom groped» and a further fall will be difficult. Not excluded sharp upward correction, in connection with which the pair can choose just two trading tactics:

1. Short-term buy on pullbacks from current oversold levels.

2. Search of attractive entry points short positions, as in the medium term, the pair will continue to show a downward trend.

USD / RUB could weaken under yesterday’s trading, and it is possible that we will see further downward movement in the coming days, although hardly expect a sharp appreciation of the ruble even in the face of the approaching tax period and reduced ruble liquidity. Yesterday’s speech of the Central Bank of Elvira Nabiullina failed to calm the markets, but its reservation about the «inability to keep the exchange rate under control,» still remind investors that the current temporary stabilization of the ruble may be replaced by a new pair of sharp jump to another record.

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Overview of the world's major financial markets from November 18, 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners