Overview of the world’s major financial markets from November 17, 2014

Stock indexes began the trading week in different directions: while Asian indices were under the influence of a weak Japanese GDP, European happy prospect of additional stimulus from the ECB. Japan’s Nikkei at the end of trading day down 1.6%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng closed trading 1.9% lower. Meanwhile, Britain’s FTSE rose by 0.26%, German DAX — by 0.58%, while the NASDAQ and DJIA spent most of the US session in multidirectional movement.

The week began impressively, the market has received several catalysts for the sharp fluctuations. Firstly, Japanese GDP report officially confirmed the fact that the third largest economies in the world slipped into technical recession. For the 3rd quarter growth rate slowed down a further 0.4% instead of the expected growth of 0.5%. This gave rise to a wave of rumors that Abe refuses to further increase the sales tax, and helped USD / JPY to rise above 117, although not for long, as the collapse of the Nikkei immediately went back a couple. By the end, we observed oscillations near 116.40. EUR / USD after an unsuccessful attempt to consolidate above 1.2570 1.2450 rolled into the area, which contributed to the next and «soft» comments Mario Draghi. GBP / USD reached 1.5735 in the morning, but had to re-incur losses at the end of the day, after several British banks have revised their forecasts for the timing of the first rate hike. Now it is not expected before 2016, and it has sent a pair to 1.5645 area. Meanwhile, USD / RUB behaved with restraint, to trade within the 40-point range and closed in the middle.

Oil prices continued to incur losses at the opening of the trading week, as investors realize that OPEC is not ready to cut production volumes. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that the current decline — not the collapse that we have witnessed in recent days, and even reports of a technical recession in Japan could not prevent the recovery of the asset to the end of the trading day. Brent yesterday slipped to a low of $ 77.92, but by the end of trading the asset was able to recover to the levels of the opening just above 79.00.

Precious metals were forced to give up part of the earned last Friday in connection with a technical correction, and in connection with the restoration of the demand for the US dollar. XAU / USD opened the bidding at $ 1184.71, tried to continue to strengthen the level of 1194.21, but was forced to revert to the area at the close of 1185. Meanwhile, XAG / USD from the opening level of 16.24 to 16.10 down to close.

Forecast for Tuesday, November 18

Stock market

Shares of Apple (AAPL) continue to beat all records, making a decent contribution to the overall growth of US indexes, thanks to the successful presentation of the iPhone 6 and systems Apple Pay. If we recall also about the upcoming release of Apple Watch, you can expect a further increase in revenues and, hence, good growth stocks in the medium term. The most important thing in this situation — the fact that all three representations of product yield higher returns than all current Apple products combined. The whole business world is beginning to say that companies currently experiencing the strongest production cycle by the criterion of profitability over the past four years.

Apple Pay has not fired, but there is every chance that this system of payment will dominate the mobile environment, taking into account not only the most popular iOS-devices, but also large-scale work of American companies to cooperate with banks and retail stores. Of course, it is unlikely the company’s shares have the same growth potential, as in June last year, but the growth of more than $ 130 per share by the end of next year at this stage looks quite real.

Commodities

Precious metals at the end of last week pleased with rapidly rising, but the resistance area $ 1,200 per ounce remains a serious obstacle on the way up. In addition, it is recognized that the fundamental reasons for the growth in demand for gold is less — the economic slowdown in China (one of the largest consumers of the metal), as well as yesterday’s data, which confirmed a return to recession of the Japanese economy, promise a drop in demand for precious metals in a fairly weak inflationary pressures.

Thus, at current levels, it is likely the return of bears, who again tried to pull quotes XAU / USD down from the medium-term objective at $ 1,100 per ounce. Our baseline forecast for the next month remains the same: an asset may continue to fluctuations within the 100-dollar range 1100-1200, which can be used to your advantage. Current levels look pretty attractive to entry shorts and close positions makes sense near the bottom of the existing range.

Foreign exchange market

USD / JPY crept up to multi-year highs near 117.00 for those same conversations that Japanese Prime Minister Abe will hold early elections and postpone the second increase in the sales tax until 2017. In one of the Japanese edition states that it will happen on November 19 and although officials have persistently denied these rumors, for the second consecutive articles on this topic in the press suggest that such an outcome is inevitable. Received yesterday the GDP data for the 3rd quarter confirmed the need to postpone the increase in the tax burden on the population. All of this suggests that Abe will continue to adhere to the policy of aggressive stimulus that has helped the pair to break through 116.00, so now return above $ 117.00 is quite possible in the coming days.

USD / RUB hardly reacted to the two main events of yesterday — the message that the new sanctions will not, and are not very successful results of the annual auction of the Bank of Russia, in which he offered the currency at a fairly attractive rate. Just a couple of weeks ago, any of these events could cause a storm of emotions and provoke a 200-point fluctuations of the pair, and now it is clear that speculators have almost gone from the market, which means that ahead of us, «outset» with the possibility of coming out of it only when sharp jumps of oil or unexpected tekstovki protocol last Fed meeting (which is unlikely).

Твой выбор

Search

The best broker

Link to Us



Overview of the world's major financial markets from November 17, 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners