Overview of the world’s major financial markets for the week 24 — 28 November 2014

Last week, stock indices in the positive dynamics. And again in the leaders broke the German index DAX, which added at the end of five days of 2.53%. Partly due to comments made previously head of the ECB and the expectations of the next expansion provoking stimulus. In part, good statistics. IFO index showed growth above forecasts, as well as the earlier index ZEW. Showed good numbers and the retail sector in Germany. Despite the fact that a week was short, US Dow Jones and NASDAQ increased, respectively, 2.1% and 0.28%, again updating maxima. Contributed to the growth of mixed statistics, which gives reason to believe that the Fed may not be to force the issue in the beginning of the hike. Asian markets continued to rise amid expectations conservation ultrasoft monetary policy by the Bank of Japan, which only intensified after inflation data. The consumer price index fell. Japan’s Nikkei added 0.4% and the Hang Seng jumped 2.45%.

Precious metals started the week positively enough, but finished with substantial losses. Gold fell by 3.07%, silver lost 6.31%. Initially, the decline was due to technical factors, but later intervened and the fundamental component. After OPEC announced its decision, fears of possible imminent strengthening of inflation has declined, leading to a drop in demand for tools that allow you to hedge these risks. In addition, data on the consumer price index in Germany (figure dropped to 5-year low) and the euro area confirmed that inflation remains low.

Brent crude oil for the last week lost immediately 13.07%, down to the level of 70.00 dollars per barrel. Pressure on the quotes black gold had OPEC’s decision not to cut production quotas. Thus the cartel made it clear that at the moment it is more concerned with market share, rather than price.

In the currency market USD / RUB resumed upward movement. Quotes couples updated again high at 49.7858, from which rolled a little to close. However, this did not prevent the pair add 7.82%. Again, the key fall of the Russian currency was the decision of OPEC in relation to oil production quotas, which has deprived the market hopes for a quick turn of the prices for oil. In addition, on Friday ended the period of tax payments, which leads to a decrease in demand for ruble liquidity. AUD / USD for the week showed a drop of 1.82%. Apart from the fact that in recent years the US dollar is clearly a favorite of the market, the pressure on a couple of comments and have a representative of the Reserve Bank of Australia that the regulator does not exclude the possibility of further rate cuts if necessary.

Forecast 1 — 5 December

Stock market

The first week of December will be very busy in terms of scheduled reports. Almost every tool can get your own catalysts for movements. 4 Central Bank will announce its decisions on monetary policy (RBA, BoE, ECB, Bank of Canada). In addition, the data will be published index of business activity in the industrial and service sectors, as well as data on employment in the US non-farm payrolls. Technically, the US indices look overbought in the short term, and it allows them to wait for a downward correction. Dow Jones may revert to the district level 17692. The purpose of correction Nasdaq may be the level 4245.85. But this reduction may well be quite interesting moment to open long positions. And they can grow as on strong US data, and under the influence of optimistic reports insufficient because it will convince the market that the Fed will not rush to the start of a rate hike. Especially because the market usually increases during the end of November, beginning of December, 0. The German DAX slumped quite close to the level of resistance 10000. pass it on the first try can be difficult, which also allows you to wait for a downward correction in the area of 9805.5. However, if the rhetoric Mario Draghi after the announcement of the monetary policy will enhance expectations of new stimulus, the benchmark may resume growth, aiming at the level of 10055. Hong Kong HSI may resume growth, especially if the data on business activity in the industrial sector in China show a decline. Recall that the Bank of China on Nov. 21 lowered the rate for the first time since 2012 and signs of further weakening of the economy of China will allow to wait for new actions in this direction. Therefore, in the short term, we can expect that the quotes will attempt to return to the area 24352 level.

Commodities

Next week is quite interesting dynamics can show gold. Already this Sunday, November 30, in Switzerland held a referendum on the gold. Voting results may have a significant impact on the market of this precious metal. The purpose of voting is to return the Swiss gold into the country to ensure its safety. In addition, the organizers want to ensure that the share of gold in the international reserves of at least 20%. And, if these goals are achieved, the Swiss National Bank will have in the next 3 years to buy 1,000 tons of gold (which is about 50% of annual world production). Thus, it is possible that in the case of a positive outcome of the vote, gold price will return to the resistance 1200.00, a breakthrough that will pave the way on up to 1233.08. Although, according to preliminary data, this initiative would support only 38%. And it can lead to a further reduction in the level of 1139.25 and, further, to 1,100.00 in the event of a breakthrough. Silver is likely to remain on the same wavelength with gold.

A key event for the oil market is left behind. Overall, OPEC’s decision may contribute to further drop in prices of black gold. The fact that the oil market is entering a new phase of its development, for which will be characterized by lower prices than those prevailing in previous years. Immediate support for Brent crude oil is at the level of 66.50 dollars per barrel. Yet the psychological level of support in the area which is now in quotes (70,00) can cause short-term pullback in the level of 72.50.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar / ruble in the near future may exhibit relatively high volatility. But this movement is likely to be mixed. On the one hand, falling oil prices will have on the Russian currency pressure. As well as Russian companies coming in December payments on external borrowings. In favor of the ruble is the geopolitical tensions linked to the events in Ukraine. Therefore, testing the level of 50 rubles to the dollar is not far off. However, on the other hand, the active growth of the pair USD / RUB may yet force the Central Bank of Russia to intervene and support the ruble, as this situation still poses a threat to financial stability. Therefore, it is possible that the range of fluctuations pair will be limited to levels of 47.9431 — 50.5000.

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Overview of the world's major financial markets for the week 24 - 28 November 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners