Overview of the world’s major financial markets for the week 17 — 21 November 2014

Last week, stock indices in the majority, with the exception of Asia, showed a positive trend. The strongest growth was recorded among the European indices. In particular, the German DAX added at the end of five days 5.19%, supported by the comments, Mario Draghi, in which the head of the ECB once again pledged to extend stimulus measures and make every effort to combat low inflation. US NASDAQ and Dow Jones rose, respectively, 0.7% and 1.01%, again updating the highs. On Friday, the support came from China. China central bank cut its benchmark interest rate for the first time since the summer of 2012. Japan’s Nikkei lost 0.5%. The Hang Seng was down 2.6%. Pressure was exerted on him plenty of disappointing data from China, starting with the economic reports and ending with the launch failure mechanism of cross-trading between Shanghai and Hong Kong stock exchanges. But the news from the People’s Bank of China helped him recover some losses.

Precious metals plus completed week, despite the fact that most of it is retained within rather narrow ranges, without finding catalysts for important breakthrough levels. This is largely due Friday dynamics triggered by the decision of the Central Bank of China. As a result, gold ended the week with a score of + 0.81%, silver strengthened by 0.82%. It should be noted that an additional factor in support of gold remains stable demand for physical gold from China.

Brent crude oil for the last week is still able to demonstrate recovery. Black gold to the close of trading on Friday has risen in price to 80.52 dollars per barrel, thus, increase by 1.17%. In addition to factors such as technical correction, oil price growth was supported by expectations that at the next meeting of OPEC will still decided to reduce production quotas. The representative of Libya in the OPEC group of Samir Kamal urged to reduce production volume of 500 thousand barrels per day. Also excited the market rumors that Ecuador and Venezuela will perform for the decline in production within OPEC meeting.

In the currency market USD / RUB, finally developed a downward correction. Quotes pair fell by 3.05%. Support the ruble received by several factors. Earlier this week it was announced that the EU did not go to the expansion of sectoral sanctions. In addition, the positive impact and helped to stabilize oil prices. Also in favor of the Russian currency testified and growth in demand for ruble liquidity due to the beginning of the tax period. EUR / USD within a week showed a mixed trend. In the first half it was trying to develop a pair of upward correction in which very close to the 1.2600 resistance. However, the weak data on the index of business activity in the industrial sector in Germany and the euro area, as well as Mario Draghi comments made on Friday, drove a couple to give all earnings, falling to around 1.2390 at the close of the week.

Forecast for the week 24 — November 28

Stock market

The coming week will be short for the American stock exchanges. On Thursday, the United States celebrated Thanksgiving Day. But despite this, the first half of her can be quite interesting. By publishing a sufficient number of scheduled reports that can cause activity in the market. On Tuesday, the US was to publish revised data on growth in Q3, as well as data on consumer confidence from the Conference Board. Provided that the GDP growth rate of at least coincide with the preliminary melon, US indices may obtain further support amid signs of continued economic recovery. In this case, it is possible that, and Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and will continue to update the highs. Objectives, respectively, can be 17900 and 4290.00. Also interesting are the data on orders for durable goods, a weekly report on applications for unemployment benefits and sales data on the primary housing market, published on Wednesday. Own reasons to worry and be the German DAX. Monday will be published index of business optimism in Germany by IFO. If he followed the previously published ZEW, show growth above expectations, it can be a little to enhance the positive mood on the European stock market. Also, do not exclude from the field of view of the data on the consumer price index in Germany (on Thursday) and the euro area (on Friday). The slightest hint of a further decline in price pressures intensify expectations of further measures by the ECB, to combat low inflation that could support the German index, aiming its growth in the level of 9889.00. Hong Kong HSI may continue upward correction begun on Friday. Support may be provided as a solution to the People’s Bank of China to lower the rate, and the fact that the index too actively responded to the small volume of trades between Shanghai and Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Such a step, as a whole, shows that China continues to open up the world and foreign investors, as it will mean new investment and a large amount of foreign capital in the future. Therefore, in the short term, we can expect the return of quotations in the level of 24013 with the further aim to 24352.


Not next week quite interesting dynamics can demonstrate and gold. Let me remind you that on November 30 in Switzerland will hold a referendum on gold, the results of which may have a significant impact on the market of this precious metal. The purpose of voting is to return the Swiss gold into the country to ensure its safety. In addition, the organizers want to ensure that the gold sol in international reserves amounted to no less than 20%. And, if these goals are achieved, the Swiss National Bank will have in the next 3 years to buy 1,000 tons of gold (which is about 50% of annual world production). Thus, it is possible that in the case of a positive outcome of the vote, gold price will show growth. Foothold above 1200.00, quotes are aimed at lifting the mark of 1233.08 and, further, to 1,248.83.

A key influence on the quotes of Brent crude oil in the coming week will have a meeting of OPEC (recall that the countries of the cartel produces about 40% of global consumption), which will be held on November 27. The main issue of discussion will concern quotas. It is possible that the cartel did not listen to country, stood up for their reduction. Especially that neither Saudi Arabia (which is drawn into price wars), or Iran, or even Libya, such a move is not advantageous. Most likely, until the announcement of the results of the meeting, quotes Brent will be held within the current range of 76.50 — 80.50. In the future, if you still will be decided to reduce the quotas could increase in the level of 84.00 — 85.00 dollars per barrel. Otherwise, testing support at 75.00 and its breakthrough in the area of movement 70,00.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar / ruble has made a correction, but most likely in the coming week the ruble will try to continue to recover losses. As demonstrated by the dynamics of the pair in the last few days, speculators have almost gone from the market and the dynamics will now ask more objective factors. Oil prices have stabilized yet, and probably up until the outcome of the meeting of OPEC will not show sharp fluctuations in the downside. Also in Russia continues period of tax payments, which increases the demand for the ruble. Therefore, under the condition that the pair USD / RUB will be fixed below 45.5145, she will continue to move into the area mark 44.9518 and, further, 44.5000. Although, if OPEC decides not to reduce quotas and oil prices will rush below $ 75 per barrel, the couple can to the end of the week back to around 47.00.

In anticipation of the referendum on the gold with EUR / CHF crept very close to the barrier, which the SNB is called the target (1.2000). In this case, if the vote will say «yes» to return to the country’s gold reserves, it may complicate the task of defending this level. Moreover, the adoption of this initiative, according to the head of the Central Bank of Switzerland, reducing its ability to act in a crisis. Thus, when the positive outcome of the vote is not excluded short break of 1.2000.


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Overview of the world's major financial markets for the week 17 - 21 November 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners