Overview of the world’s major financial markets for the week 10 — 14 November 2014

Last week, the stock markets again showed no uniformity in the dynamics. American and Asian showed an increase, while Europe, with the exception of the UK FTSE (+ 1,26%) disappointed. NASDAQ and Dow Jones updated almost daily highs, but the movements were quite restrained. In general, at the end of five days index added 1.49% and 0.43%, respectively. The US economy continues to show a rather positive signals that support the stock market. And retail sales data and a report on consumer confidence showed an increase above forecasts. Slightly worse than expected out weekly treatment for unemployment benefits, but rate increase to 290 000 does not appear critical. Germany’s DAX fell 0.53%. Reports on GDP for the 3rd quarter in Germany and the Eurozone were slightly better than expected. This has raised fears that the ECB could delay the launch of new monetary stimulus. Japan’s Nikkei stock index was among the leaders of growth, adding 4.04%. The Hang Seng rose 2.2%. Support they have reported that long-awaited link between Shanghai and Hong Kong Stock Exchange will start functioning in full next week. Also for the benefit of the Asian indices turned and application of the People’s Bank of China that it is prepared to provide liquidity to smaller banks in the country.

Precious metals earlier in the week showed restrained dynamics, consolidating within narrow range. However, on Friday, they were able to take revenge. As a result, gold ended the week with a score of + 1.33%, silver has appreciated by 3.63%. Part of the support assets received against the background of the Central Bank of China. But a far greater impact on the gold price could have a report World Gold Council (WGC). According to him, the world’s central banks have bought 93 tons of gold in the 3rd quarter. Thus, it is noted that net purchases have been going for 15 consecutive quarter. WGC analysts predict that by the end of this year, the Central Bank buying gold will be about 500 tons. This indirectly indicates that there are concerns gain geopolitical risks when precious metals are traditionally in demand.

Brent crude oil last week was once again under pressure. Black gold fell by 4.8%. During the week quotes reaches 76.75 unseen since September 2010. The main pressure on oil prices have expectations that OPEC’s November meeting will not reduce production quotas. Such an intention said representatives of many countries in the cartel, noting that while prices are at a relatively acceptable level. Only expiration, in connection with the transition to the January contract allowed quotations on Friday to close the area to revert to the level of 79.00.

In the currency market USD / RUB showed modest growth — only 1.31%. Most of the week the pair remained within the range of 45.5145 — 46.5651, but on Friday came under pressure, and not being able to ignore the update oil quotations lows, even despite the obvious oversold ruble. GBP / USD updated 14-month low after the publication of the inflation report, the Bank of England. The regulator has lowered the outlook for inflation and expressed concerns about a slowdown in the economy, which reduced expectations that the MPC will soon be decided on a rate increase. It should be noted that it is possible to reduce the continuation, if the Protocol November meeting reflect that proponents hike joined the majority.

Forecast for the week 17 — 21 November

Stock market

The coming week promises to be interesting in terms of planned to publish reports. Interesting and can become its beginning, since the current output there is a meeting G20. It is expected that the topic will be discussed and Ukraine. And depending on what key will be discussed, it is possible that the stage will once again the theme of geopolitical risks that may have on the stock market pressure. Some correction in US indices also possible on the background of technical factors. And the Dow Jones, Nasdaq and is at a maximum. In the case of rollback may become targets, respectively, and 17353 4165.00. In what follows, the influence of dynamic data may have the construction sector USA (provided that it demonstrates sufficient strength to indicate that further economic recovery, regrowth is not excluded). On Wednesday, the market will await publication of the minutes of the last Fed meeting. Any evidence that the regulator may decide on an earlier rate hike will be able to put pressure on the US indices. And it is possible that in this case it drops below a specified level. However, on Thursday they may have a chance at the resumption of growth, provided that the data on the consumer price index will reflect the decline in price pressures. Own reasons to worry and be the German DAX. Tuesday will be published index of business sentiment in Germany by ZEW. The index fell for the last 10 months. If this trend continues, the market will grow expectations run an additional incentive measures by the ECB, which can return the index quotes in the level of 9495.0. Also noteworthy and data on the index of business activity in the euro area and the largest countries of the monetary unit. Asian markets, particularly Hong Kong HSI (goal, in this case, 24352) may provide grounds for optimism on the background of the opening of access to the Chinese stock market with total liquidity of about 4.2 trillion. In addition, the data will be published in the rate of growth of the Japanese economy in the 3rd quarter and announced a decision on monetary policy by the Japanese regulator. It is worth recalling that in the second quarter of the country’s economy has demonstrated a rather sharp drop, and if in the 3rd quarter will be marked by a tendency to its further slowdown, this will increase expectations of launching new incentives and, therefore, support the indexes.

Commodities

Reasons for the turmoil will have the precious metal. It is worth noting that hints at a possible rate hike earlier, and signs of declining price pressures in the US may have additional pressure on gold. Although unlikely quotes metal will go below the level of 1131.80, but if it will still be overcome, target of the fall may be the level of 1100. An additional factor of pressure on the metal can be, and further strengthening of the dollar. The objectives of silver in such a situation can become 15.469 and 15.062 levels. The only thing that can now support the precious metals — an increase of geopolitical risks.

Quotes of Brent crude oil persistently moved to the level of $ 75.00. It is worth mentioning that the production of shale oil remains profitable until quotes black gold held above that mark. So do not rule out that in the case of reducing this level quotes black gold can start growth. However, the position with regard to OPEC production quotas until quite clear: «no reduction». And it is unlikely to return oil above $ 80 a barrel. Do not forget about the European records and data on business activity in the industrial sector in China. If these economies will continue to serve alarms, oil can accelerate the fall amid expectations of further reductions in demand.

Foreign exchange market

Speculative factors that have additional support pair USD / RUB, gradually disappears. And that, if they will not contribute to the strengthening of the ruble, then, in any case, will slow his fall. Although the downward correction has several reasons. Firstly, it has already been called before, the Russian currency is oversold. Secondly, though not ruled out some stabilization in oil prices, which should also support the ruble. The mite can make and the results of the first annual auction repo in the currency, but only on condition that it is not repeated the story of his short-term counterparts, when the banks have not shown sufficient interest to the instrument. However, tensions in Ukraine is preserved and G 20 meeting of the Russian president met cool enough. In addition, there is talk of the possibility that Vladimir Putin will leave the summit before it ends. So do not rule out the possibility that the pair will open up a gap and attempt to return to the previously reached the maximum (48.6285). And, of course, do not forget about the possibility of new sanctions ads. But negative for the ruble we see only in the case of expanding sanctions sector.

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Overview of the world's major financial markets for the week 10 - 14 November 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners