Overview of the major global financial markets from October 30, 2014

Thursday passed for the stock markets are quite favorable, as the first feelings about more aggressive than expected Fed statement dispelled, and strong GDP report from the US cheered investors. Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.8% in the trading day, but the Hang Seng lost 0.59%. Britain’s FTSE rose by 0.15%, while Germany’s DAX — 0.35%. NASDAQ and DJIA to the completion of the American session to show good growth.

Thursday went to the foreign exchange market is quite interesting, and the star of the auction was a pair of USD / RUB, which only manages to show records. Since the morning was broken marker 43.00, and the pair quickly reached 43.57. Nevertheless, in the afternoon began strengthening ruble sharply, reaching the mark 41.41 just a couple of hours and completing trades nearby. USD / JPY, meanwhile, updated 3-week high at 109.46 but retreated to 109.20 at the close area. EUR / USD tried to recover from a low of 1.2554, after returning to the area of ​​1.2610 at the close. GBP / USD rebounded from a low of 1.5960 and closed the trading day in 1.60.

Oil prices yesterday more affected by the strengthening of the US dollar than on economic data. It is worth noting that a strong US GDP confirm the good pace of recovery of the world’s largest economy and, consequently, the demand on her part will also grow. This is a potentially positive for the stock «black metal», if we discard the negative effect of the appreciation of the US dollar. Brent reached intraday low of 85.70 yesterday, but retreated to 86.00 at the close.

Precious metals continue to be under pressure. The more positive comes out of the American economy, the weaker demand for safer assets. As a result, starting the day at 1212,03, XAU / USD to the end of trading day reached 1198.56 per ounce, noting the road 3-week low at 1195.92. Meanwhile, XAG / USD plummeted to more than 3.5-year low of 16.33, rolled area of 16.50 at the close.

Forecast for Friday, October 31

Stock market

Now watch the dynamics of the German index DAX, which yesterday added to inflation rather weak data from Hesse, Saxony and Bavaria. Recall that the low price pressure may force the ECB to go the extra stimulation of the eurozone economy, which is always a positive effect on the stock markets. Today published reports on the CPI of the eurozone. If here and figure tries to go into negative territory, we can expect the growth of the German benchmark by 1% — 1.5%.

Commodities

Better than the US economy, the worse feeling gold. Quotes are already down below key support 1,200 per ounce and can continue to fall in the coming days, as long as US reports demonstrate the stability and good rate of recovery indicators. Furthermore, additional pressure on asset was the news that the global demand for commodity investment products that use gold as a basic tool, slumped to its lowest level in five years. Add to this the fact that China and India — the largest consumer asset — gradually reduce its interest in precious metals.

Indeed, in the current circumstances, it would seem, the reasons for the growth of the safe asset is not. The US economy is recovering at a good pace and can pull the whole world. Meanwhile, the Chinese economy cools, namely the country are most interested in precious metals. However, it should be remembered that while US growth is uncertain nature, and the Fed may refrain from raising rates for an extended period. Meanwhile, Europe and Asia is not yet solved their economic problems, and it threatens all further slowdown in global growth. In such circumstances, demand for the precious metal begins to rise. From a technical standpoint, XAU / USD may try to touch the October low of 1180, and from there again to resume growth. So even the current levels can be considered quite attractive entry points Longo under medium-term strategy.

Foreign exchange market

USD / RUB demonstrated yesterday for the first time, breaking the mark of 43.00 trade, but immediately noted the new record — the most impressive drop since January 2010. Someone tied so swings with rumors about the arrangements in the Crimea; someone referred to a technical correction in the run-up to the meeting of the Central Bank and the output; There were even rumors of some technical failure. To date, it has not so important. Much more important is that we now see the area that can be called «boiling point». It is at these levels, the big players prefer to leave the currency positions, and that these levels will act as a strong resistance area in the near future.

Today, all attention will be focused on the meeting of the Bank of Russia. Just recently, there were rumors that the controller can send the ruble in «free floating» ahead of schedule, and it became one of the main reasons so many sharp fall in domestic currency. If none of this will be announced, and at the meeting it is decided to increase the rate by 50 basis points, it can save the current position of USD / RUB, limiting its further growth, at least temporarily. But in the case of increasing the cost of credit on a 100 bp we can see a further strengthening of the ruble area 42,00.

The main reason for the strengthening of the US dollar over the past couple of days was the adjustment of expectations for the Fed rate. After the quantitative easing program was completed, and the representatives of the Federal Reserve expressed quite optimistic about the state of the labor market, investors began to price the first increase in the second quarter of 2015. Now, once again came to the scene theme difference courses monetary policy of central banks, and in such circumstances, the yen and the euro looks very weak, for reasons of national regulators softness. So, EUR / USD and USD / JPY may remain under pressure in the coming weeks, although published today PCE price index of the United States may remind markets of still low inflation and cause transient slight recovery of the euro and the yen with immediate goals at levels 1.2630 and 109.60, respectively.

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Overview of the major global financial markets from October 30, 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners