Overview of the major global financial markets for the week 20 — 24 October 2014

Stock markets continue to recover. Positive dynamics largely determines the fact that investors regain confidence in the global economic recovery and the fact that all is not as bleak as was announced earlier. Besides the American statistics, published last week, was mixed, which gave reason to believe that the Fed may still not be rush to the start raising rates after complete collapse of quantitative easing measures. That is why the indices ended the week in green. Leader growth hundred American NASDAQ, strengthened by 4,39%, Dow Jones added 2.59. The German DAX was able to play 2.9%. Japan’s Nikkei gained 2.18%, the Hang Seng rose 1.38.

Last week showed positive momentum and a large part of the shares. In particular, Yandex (YNDX) rose by 5,72%, Apple (AAPL) added 5.13%. At least it is quite high due to the provided by these companies quarterly reporting. Apple reported earnings per share of $ 1.42, versus $ 1.31 forecast. Revenues also exceeded expectations ($ 42.1 billion versus $ 39.8 billion). Consolidated revenues Yandex rose 28% year-ratio (up to 13.1 billion rubles, or $ 331.5 million).

Precious metals started the week on a positive note, being influenced by the demand for risk-free assets. However, after China GDP data confirmed a smaller-than-expected slowdown in GDP growth (7.3% vs. a decline to 7.2% from 7.5% in Q2), the index of business activity in Germany back in the growth zone and the UK economy showed growth in line with expectations, interest in gold and silver fell. As a result, metals finished the week down. Gold lost 1.19%, silver fell by 1.15%.

Brent crude oil for the week showed mixed trends, you get support amid reports that Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have signaled readiness to cut production, then falling under the pressure of information on less-than-expected reduction of oil reserves. Nevertheless, at the end of five days working asset smog slightly harden. The increase was 1.14%. In general, the longer the fact that prices have not declined in the region reached earlier lows, lets talk about their relative stability.

In the currency market tended to return faith in the dollar, although saying that the published statistics for the week clearly showed the restoration of the American economy is still not worth it. EUR / USD to the end of the week again fixed below the level of 1.2700, shedding 0.97%. Not surprisingly, as the market was influenced by rumors that the 11 European banks have not passed the stress test. GBP / USD lost 0.4%. Minutes of meetings of the IFA, was held in October, brought disappointment of the British currency. But the data on growth, coming in line with forecasts, allowed the pair to partially recover losses. USD / JPY was able to demonstrate an increase of 1.17%. USD / RUB continued to put antirecord, rising to the level of 42 rubles per dollar. And just the fact that S & P has affirmed the rating at BBB- Russia while the market excited rumors about the possibility of downgrade to junk level. As a result, the pair finished trading at 41.7785.

Forecast 27 — Oct 31

Stock market

The coming week will be very interesting from the point of view of the planned to publish reports. US was to publish data on orders for durable goods and a report on consumer confidence from the Conference Board. Both of these reports will be released on Tuesday. Strong statistics can provide moderate support US indices. However, it is possible that in the run-up published on Wednesday the Fed’s decision on monetary policy is not followed any special reaction. Surprises from the Fed is not expected, most likely, the regulator, as planned, fully curtail the program of quantitative easing. Emphasis will be on the subsequent comments, because they may contain hints of further steps the Fed. If the regulator is soft enough and not give any reason to wait for the early start raising rates, NASDAQ and Dow Jones can continue to grow, targeting 4112.66 and 17130, respectively. DAX can be influenced by the German Statistics: Data IFO index on Monday and labor market report on Thursday. The impact on the index and may have data on the consumer price index in E18. The slightest disappointment can cause sales index, provoking a return to the district level of 8674.7. Japan’s Nikkei also may obtain catalysts in the form of a decision on the monetary policy of the Bank of Japan. Any hints on the possibility of additional stimulus can cause the demand for Asian markets, including on the Hang Seng.


The decision on the monetary policy of the Fed will be very important and precious metals. If the US regulator still will understand that it is ready to consider the possibility of an earlier rate hike, gold could come under quite severe pressure, again testing the strength of the support at $ 1,200 per ounce. But if this still does not happen, and the gold, silver and resume growth with immediate goals at 1269.46 and 17.791, respectively.

Dynamics of the black gold, which is demonstrated in the last week, shows that drop yet found its limit. Nevertheless, in order to oil prices began a large-scale reinforcement, even in the relatively short term, require catalysts. The strongest of them can become official statements by OPEC countries to reduce the volume of oil production. Only then, perhaps, we can expect that the quotes of Brent can pass resistance at 86.80 and aim to rise to the level of $ 90 per barrel. Although it is possible to move up and background apparent weakness of the dollar. If the catalyst is not, it is possible that the asset will continue to move within the range of 84.00 — 87.00.

Foreign exchange market

The dynamics of the pair USD / RUB causes with serious misgivings. At the same time, achieving new heights and makes waiting a further weakening of the ruble. However, the events of Friday, as mentioned above, and a new round of talks on gas between Russia and Ukraine (from which is still waiting for the signing on deliveries of natural gas) allow to continuing a downward correction. An additional factor that will benefit the Russian currency may become and the stabilization of oil prices. In addition, a period of tax payments, which traditionally is a growing demand for the ruble. Therefore, if the couple starts to regain positive statistics from the US, wait for a pullback in the level of 41.50 — 41.37.

The EUR / USD could remain under pressure amid the outcome of stress tests of banks. Additionally, for the euro is quite a serious risk factor may be the statistics of Germany and the data on the consumer price index in the euro area. It is therefore possible drop in prices in the level 1.2600 with the further aim at 1.2500. Pretty interesting dynamics and can demonstrate pair NZD / USD, as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand publishes decision on monetary policy. If the regulator will give the slightest reason to think that he is willing to give up their ambitious plans by the end of this year to increase the rate to 4%, the pair could drop to the level of 0.7700.


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Overview of the major global financial markets for the week 20 - 24 October 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners