Overview of the major global financial markets for the week 13 — 17 October 2014

The past week may become a turning point for the stock markets. After a long decline, most indices or stabilized at current levels, or unfolded. Japan’s Nikkei gained 0.03%, the Hang Seng rose 0.54%, the British FTSE — 0.04%, while Germany’s DAX — on 1,52%. American NASDAQ and DJIA, however, were not able to recover all losses. Down for the week lost 0.07%, and the second — by 0.37%.

Currency trading in the market had doubts about the strength of the American economy, and the dollar strength. Doubts were so great that once the market has received positive American reports, this demand has not returned to the United States dollar, and risky assets. So, EUR / USD, starting this week at 1.2624 snuck above 1.28, although closed trading near 1.2750. And this despite the weak economic data from Germany, as well as the negative comments of officials. GBP / USD weekly trades completed almost neutral, but was able to recover after an impressive fall in the two figures, the news provoked by inflation in the UK. USD / JPY behaved quite calmly, noting the 2-month low at 105.19 and returned to the area of ​​106.90 at the close. USD / RUB is not surprising with its dynamics, as the market has become accustomed to the new all-time highs, celebrated almost daily. However, to close the week the pair retreated to 41.13 and closed trading near 40.64.

Despite the fact that oil prices are updated in the past week 4-year low, it is possible that local bottom was «groped» at around 82.92 on Brent. By the end of the trading week in quotes jumped 86.15 area, despite the fact that the energy reserves in the past week, according to the Ministry of Energy of the United States increased by 2.5%.

Precious metals have enjoyed the current market situation, as the demand for risk-free assets increased interest in gold and silver. As a result, starting this week at 1227,34, XAU / USD by the end of the working five days snuck into the area 1,238.20 an ounce and XAG / USD — closed at 17.25.

Forecast October 20 — 24

Stock Market

The emerging trend last week for a reversal on major stock indices can be continued in the coming days, however, provided strong economic data around the world. China and the United Kingdom published the first reports on the growth rate for the third quarter, and if we do not see here the greatest disappointments, players can regain confidence in Europe and Asia, which may cause the restoration of such indices as the Hang Seng, Nikkei, DAX and FTSE. However, there are risk factors in the form of data on business activity of the eurozone, which may again reflect the further weakening of indicators is likely to move into the zone of the recession in some countries. This factor may again put pressure on the German DAX.

Commodities

The coming weeks could be decisive for trading in gold, as the market begins to doubt the stability of the global economic recovery and, hence, to look for safer assets for investment. If the flow of funds from the stock market will acquire far-reaching, XAU / USD may go back above 1260 per ounce in the next few days.

As the events of recent days, the fall in oil prices still has its limits. Even against the backdrop of negative energy source for reports on stocks, prices could recover from the lows reached, and it can talk about the probability of a reversal of the downward trend, even for a short period. Quotes decreased lately too deep and too fast. All widely used in the market indicators that determine the levels of «overbought» and «oversold» are at multi-year lows. This may be the reason for the increased demand, followed by an attempt to gain a foothold in the area of ​​price 85-90 dollars per barrel for Brent in the coming week.

Foreign Exchange Market

USD / RUB its sharp fluctuations attracts the attention of Russia’s population and generates a lot of rumors about the new record highs ahead. Nevertheless, the fact that the end of the week the pair has completed less than 41.00, and significantly below can talk about that at the moment the pair reached their peaks and may go into consolidation with the probability of short-term downward correction supported by positive factors. In the coming days, such factors may be political events — the continuation of talks between the presidents of Russia and Ukraine. In addition, we must not forget about the upcoming fiscal period, which is able to cause short-term demand for the national currency. If oil prices continue to recovery, it can make a couple of test support 40.00 over the coming days. However, the risk factor at the opening on Monday is to reduce Russia’s credit rating, which became known last Saturday.

In the coming week, the star of the currency market can be a pair GBP / USD, as the United Kingdom will present data on GDP for the 3rd quarter and the protocol of the last meeting of the Bank of England. Judging by the recent statements of the Central Bank’s chief economist Andy Haldane, from MPC hardly expect mood swings. Recent evidence suggests that the slowdown is still in progress, and published in the coming days, a report on the GDP for the 3rd quarter may well confirm this. However, it is worth remembering that the market has already laid all this and more in the price, so even with a weak data it is possible to strengthen the pair. If the breakdown above 1.6130 is confirmed, it can be expected to strengthen the area of ​​1.6250.

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Overview of the major global financial markets for the week 13 - 17 October 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners