Overview of the major global financial markets for 15 October 2014

Wednesday brought bad news for the stock market — rather weak economic data from the United States have been disappointing all over the world and provoked a wave of flight from risky assets. If Asian indices in the morning did not have time to respond to the fall, then in the evening on the HSI futures and Nikkei showed a decline. Germany’s DAX and Britain’s FTSE lost 2.83% and by 2.87%, respectively. American DJIA and NASDAQ also went up to the closure of a decent red.

Trading on the foreign exchange market most of the day took place in a rather narrow range, except for the pair USD / RUB, which in the morning broke above 41.00 to 41.03 on the historical record a sharp drop in oil prices. However, the closure of the pair retreated to the area of ​​40.72. Other currencies activated only during the American session, when it became known that the United States retail sales came out much weaker than expected. On this GBP / USD rose to the 1.6068, although returned to the area at the close of 1.5940. EUR / USD was adjusted to the level of 1.2886, but returned to 1.2780. Meanwhile, USD / JPY has updated monthly lows at 105.19, retracing the area of ​​105.86 at the close.

Oil prices recover slightly after smogs morning roar for the next multi-year lows. Brent fell to around 83.72 a barrel, after which the smog slightly adjusted and closed trading near 84.30.

Gold and silver continue to enjoy the universal panic, failing to gain a foothold on the weak data on American retail sales. XAU / USD broke the monthly record, reaching the mark 1249.73, but further case has not yet gone, and a pair of closed trading at 1240.68. Meanwhile, XAG / USD finished trading near 17.40.

Forecast for Thursday, October 16

Stock Market

After yesterday’s impressive sales on the subject of weakness in consumer demand in the United States American indices (DJIA and NASDAQ) may continue to move lower. And the reason for that can be not only the end of the quantitative easing program. And not only the growth of market uncertainty in the reconstruction of a stable world’s largest economy. And not only concerns about global growth. It is possible that today will pour oil on the fire performance of three representatives of the Federal Reserve. Investors are generated suspicions that they are too positive about the future, and the authorities can only strengthen those suspicions. It is possible that the negative comments about the prospects for economic growth in the United States fleeing the stock of assets will continue.

Commodities

The situation in the cartel, which accounts for about 40% of production consumed in the world of oil, remains a mystery to experts. Iran, which a week ago calling to coordinate their actions in order to contain the fall in prices, said he believes the current decline in their short-term trend. Saudi Arabia the previous week lowered the selling price for its Asian customers for $ 1, denoting the intention to fight for the buyer by price confrontation. Saudi Arabia’s budget by 90% filled by the proceeds of oil and was scheduled at the rate of $ 90 per barrel. At the same time, macroeconomic statistics from the euro zone continues to signal an increase in the probability of a recession in the region. Market participants are focused on long-term forecasts, signaling the presence of an imbalance in supply and assumption. From the point of view of technical analysis may be noted that the nearest support level for Brent will mark $ 80 per barrel.

Foreign Exchange Market

The main factor of pressure on the Russian currency is the theme of falling oil that yesterday close to 4-year lows near 83.72 on the sort of Brent. Not surprisingly, the USD / RUB opened trading environment gap up at around 41.02 and then get above 41.03. If prices reach $ 80 within the next month, the dollar will rise to 43.30 per ruble. However, it is unlikely that at such levels quotes «black gold» will hold for a long time, since under such conditions the profitability of many projects for the production of energy carrier can stand in jeopardy. In our opinion, the reversal is imminent, and it is quite possible that by the end of the year, the ruble will be back under the 40 mark against the dollar.

In light of yesterday published data on consumer spending was a question the validity of such a sharp strengthening of the dollar in recent months. Recall that the American economy is service-oriented, and if people will not go to the expense, the further reduction of the rate of growth will be in question. Thus, today, pay attention to the performance of three representatives of the Fed — if those are the sound is not very aggressively sell the dollar will continue. This means that for USD / JPY 105.00 levels again become a reality.

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Overview of the major global financial markets for 15 October 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners