Overview of the main global financial markets this week December 29 — January 2, 2015

At the beginning of the week culminating stock indices developed a downward correction after the «Santa rally», which they have demonstrated previously. But on the first working day of the year attempted to resume growth, but failed, to be disappointed by weaker data ISM index for the manufacturing sector. US Dow Jones and NASDAQ for the week fell by 1.46% and 2.08%, respectively. Germany’s DAX fell under the pressure of European statistics. The index of business activity in the industrial sector of the eurozone came below expectations. At the time of writing the DAX lost 1.59%. Asian indices showed mixed trends. Japan’s Nikkei lost 2.89% and the Hang Seng appreciated the closure last week short by 1.85%.

Precious metals are starting the year on a pessimistic note. Gold and silver have given all that they were able to win back the dollar earlier in the week. The main influence on the assets at this stage has the dynamics of the stock market. It was his downward correction precious metals allowed to grow, but as soon as the Dow and Nasdaq resumed growth, gold and silver again experiencing sales. In addition, the market is living the expectation that the Fed still will soon begin raising rates, and it is not the most favorable impact on the precious metals that do not bear interest. But still «thin market» gold loses 2.1%, silver is cheaper by 2.96%.

Brent crude oil continues to update the lows. Quotes decreased to the level of 55.92, unprecedented since May 2009. Reasons for the growth of the black gold is not. But the pessimistic sentiment added data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector in China, which once again showed a decline (50.1 in December against 50.3 in November). This once again confirms the fears that global demand for oil may be extremely low on the background of oversupply.

In the currency market USD / RUB again showed an increase of 8.98% to close last week. Ruble again came under pressure falling oil prices. Besides, was not too optimistic and Russian statistics, signaling that the economy is experiencing difficulty. The index of business activity in the manufacturing sector fell to 48.9 by going to zone recession. As an outsider and was a pan-European currency. For the week EUR / USD is losing 1.3%. Quotes couple celebrated at least at the level of 1.2008. Pressure on the pair had another reminder from the head of the ECB about the risk of deflation in the E18 and increase the probability of a full-scale launch of QE.

Forecast January 5 — 9

Stock market

Holidays are behind us and the market is gradually returning to normal operation. The coming week will bring a lot of interesting reports. The key to the US indices will be publication of the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve and labor market data. The minutes of the market will be looking for hints on the possible starting date of the rate increase, rather, confirm assumptions about the possible tightening in April 2015. And if he will get them, a short-term correction, which can be a good opportunity to open long positions. Data on employment payrolls in the non-agricultural sector, provided that the rate of growth will demonstrate, can cause a new wave of optimism. Any strong statements can convince the market that the US economy will continue to show good growth recovery, which is favorable for the stock market. Thus, it is possible that the Dow Jones will fall in the level of 17353, from which may resume growth. Nasdaq purpose of correction may be the level 4165.00. German DAX has a chance to continue to decline to the support level 9600. However, if the inflation data in Germany and the euro area affected by the fall of price pressure, it can enhance the expectations to launch a full-scale program of quantitative easing by the ECB. And the expectation that new steps to stimulate the economy will still allow recovery to start, it may provoke resumption of growth in the area previously reached maximum 10,097.5 and in case of a breakthrough, then, to 10200. optimistic Asian indices can be kept waiting for new incentives on the part of central banks of Japan and China. It is these expectations may allow Hong Kong HSI index to return to the area of ​​24352 level, even though the signs of the continued cooling of the economy of China. Do not forget about the published Friday, January 9, the consumer price index in China. Signs of declining price pressures may also push the People’s Bank to further easing. Nikkey can develop a rollback to the level of 17200, which is able to be a good point of entry for the purchase.

Commodities

Precious metals remain in a state of uncertainty, and even have a chance to develop a decline in the short term. Signs of further easing of inflationary pressures in the euro zone and China, as well as expectations that the US Federal Reserve will begin raising rates will put pressure on gold and silver. However, in recent days, these assets are very sensitive to the dynamics of the stock market. Therefore, a further pullback of stock indexes could regain interest in precious metals. Thus, it is possible that gold will be kept within the range bound 1170.02 — 1213.97, while silver 15.570 — 16.182. Therefore, appropriate trading strategy looks at the range: buying at the lower boundary and sale in the region of the upper.

Quotes of Brent crude continue to update lows. In general, the trend of the asset is clearly remains bearish as the market increasingly convinced that the demand may remain low enough on the background of the high-level proposals. One gets the impression that the shale projects going on retreat and want to compete with OPEC for market share. How long they will be able to fight until not too clear, as prices have already gone far enough down the level of profitability (about $ 75 per barrel). But some possibility that some of the projects will be phased out is, if prices will fall further. The short-term correction is possible. However, most likely, to develop its black gold can only on the level of 55.00, which is strong enough support.

Foreign exchange market

Rubles is not easy and the fact that Russia has long holiday weekend can not go in his favor. And it is possible the resumption of growth of the pair USD / RUB to the district level and below 60.9030, 64.1791 to, in the event of a breakthrough. Pressure on the ruble will continue to decline in oil prices. In addition, the major players are on vacation, and those who remain may try to make money on horse racing course. Some certainty in the dynamics can wait until after the holiday weekend in Russia, when the market return to exporting companies and banks. So while the ruble may show mixed trends within the range of 52.8385 — 60.9030.

EUR / USD updated 4.5-year low. Level of 1.2000 at this stage can still keep on time reduction pair, triggering its correction in the area mark 1.2200. However, do not forget about the statistics published by the US, which will be able to put pressure on the couple, as well as data on inflation in the euro zone and Germany, as signs of approaching the region to reinforce expectations of deflation can start QE and thus put additional pressure on the euro. After breaking 1.20 primary short-term goal may be the level of 1.1875.

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Overview of the main global financial markets this week December 29 - January 2, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners