Overview of the main global financial markets this week 9 — February 13, 2015

The past week has been full of political events rather than economic, but in the end, we got an interesting dynamic for a large number of assets. First of all it is worth noting an emerging trend in the strengthening of the Russian ruble, which will provide and results of the «Minsk talks» and the renewed strengthening of oil prices. USD / RUB at the end of the week lost an impressive 4.2%, while Brent rose by 5.6%.

Also of interest are the dynamics of the index DAX, which could again resume growth on strengthening hopes to stabilize the situation with Greece and the achievement of certain agreements. At least, in Athens there is a clear demand. Index on the basis of added almost 2%, while EUR / USD on the same topic recovered above 1.14 from lows near 1.1269 week.

In addition, we should note an important event in the US stock market — capitalization of Apple (APPL) for the first time in the history of American corporate sector exceeded $ 700 billion USD., And the share price has allowed the NASDAQ and Dow Jones added at 3.3% and 1.3 %, respectively.

Economic data:

  • US: increase in reserves of oil and oil products from the EIA was 4.868 million vs. 3.733 million barrels, bringing the rate to a record high.
  • Eurogroup finance ministers meeting on the extension of the program to save Greece.
  • Meeting of the Heads of Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France in Minsk on the settlement of the war.
  • British inflation report. CPI forecast for 2015 revised to decrease to 0.5% from 1.4%, and in the text there is a possibility to reduce rates.
  • USA: January, retail sales -0.8% vs. -0.5% m / m.

Forecast for the week February 16 — 20

Foreign exchange market

Pair USD / RUB on again next week will focus on the development of the situation in the energy market and on the political front. The peace agreement signed in Minsk, but now comes the most important stage — stay within the framework of the agreements as a violation of approved items could face protracted military confrontation. It is necessary to closely monitor the comments of officials on both sides of the conflict, and if they are marked attempts to meet each other, it will support the ruble. In the first place, due to hopes for an early lifting of sanctions by the West.

In addition, the ruble may strengthen and the dynamics of oil prices: Brent is steadily moving up, and if the data confirm the reduction of Baker Hughes rig in action, it is able to support the further strengthening of the «black gold». Thus, it is likely, if all the above favorable conditions, see below 60.00 ruble further aim at around 59.40.

Commodities

Quotes of Brent are back above $ 60. / Bbl. and should be able to continue the upward movement in the coming week. Much attention should be paid to the regular publication of data from the oil company Baker Hughes, which provides weekly data on the number of operating rigs. If the index will continue to fall sharply, it could push above 63.20 quotes asset and open the way to the mark of 66.50, unprecedented since December last year. However, a major obstacle for the «black gold» can once again become the data on commercial oil stocks in the United States since the last time they showed an increase in the energy carrier to a historic high.

Position of gold and silver are still under pressure, but concerns about the stability of the rate of recovery of the US economy only on hand such a «safe haven.» In addition, if the process of making a decision on Greece will be delayed and will reappear in the markets fears about the country’s withdrawal from the euro zone, it could trigger a new surge in demand for risk-free assets. The current relatively low levels on precious metals look very attractive to enter the market long. And it will be another factor in favor of the growth of these assets by: XAU / USD can be expected to return to the area of ​​$ 1,270 per ounce, and in XAG / USD — to $ 17.90.

Stock market

Weak global economic growth, coupled with the recent disappointment of US retail sales, as well as attempts to solve the Russian-Ukrainian and European-Greek conflict will create for stock markets all the conditions for growth. For all US indexes are better than ever, as investors begin to doubt that the Fed will rush to the rate increase on the background of unstable economic statistics.

Thus, the Dow Jones has all the chances to break through 1800 and update the record highs above 18100 For additional factor Nasdaq support on the way to a record high of 4500 can be confident speaker AAPL, observed recently. Estimated share of Apple in the Nasdaq index is 11.55%, making it the most significant among the other components. However, there is one event that could cause a short-term correction in US indices: publication of the minutes of the last FOMC meeting at the upcoming week. If rhetoric regulator will be too aggressive, it can cause a rollback benchmark by 1-2% on expectations of imminent monetary tightening.

Germany’s DAX explicitly configured to update the record above 11,200, which helps a lot ultrasoft monetary policy of the ECB. However, in the coming week we can get another factor for growth if they are finalized relations with Greece. On Monday, February 16, a regular meeting of eurozone finance ministers. Last week Disselblum hinted that by the time Greece must make a request for an extension of the program as well as the current recovery program ends February 28th.

Hong Kong HSI index on the lack of economic events and the approaching New Year according to the lunar calendar may be followed by a general trend or lock yourself in narrow ranges close to the current level of 24700. But for the Nikkei (NKD) coming week could be interesting, given the recent comments by Prime Minister Abe on the implementation of further the structural reform process, as well as the imminent publication of GDP data for the 4th quarter, which is expected to strengthen. In addition, you should pay attention to the press conference of the Bank of Japan — if there are new hints to stimulate the economy, this may give an incentive for the index breakdown of strong resistance at around 18,000 with the target in the area of ​​18230.

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Overview of the main global financial markets this week 9 - February 13, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners