Overview of the main global financial markets this week 8 — 12 December 2014

Last week the stock market was not too optimistic. Stock indexes finally developed a downward correction from earlier highs. The strongest drop showed German DAX, which lost 5.2%. And even hope that the ECB will still be forced to take a full QE, as demand at auctions tLTRO is not high enough, could not change the mood of a minor. US Dow Jones and the NASDAQ fell respectively 3.51% and 2.49%. Do not lag behind Europe and America Asia. Japan’s Nikkei lost 4.18% and the Hang Seng was down 3.51%. In addition to general sentiment, formed within a week, Asian markets were winning back poor statistics from China, ignoring the fact that it can provoke a regulator to go for additional stimulation.

Precious metals started the week positively enough. Quotes of gold and silver rose to its highest level in the last 6 weeks, playing a downward correction of the stock market. But in the future, strong enough statistics from the US, in particular, data on retail sales, slightly changed the mood and metals were again under pressure. However, they have lost much less than earned, and eventually finished five days in the black. Silver rose by 4.49%. Gold added 2.56%.

Brent crude oil continued to fall. For the week quotes assets decreased to the level of 61.73, once again, updating at least more than 5 years. Pressure on the black gold have several factors. Firstly, the decline followed by Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait prices. Thus, the largest oil producers of OPEC made it clear that they are ready to fight for market share. Secondly, predictions OPEC that next, the demand for oil drops to a minimum of 12 years. Third, the outlook for global demand for oil has reduced and the International Energy Agency.

In the currency market USD / RUB again updated the historical maximum. Ruble for the week fell by 10.29%. Russian currency won back the fall in oil prices. On Thursday acceded to this factor is not enough aggressive decision the Bank of Russia’s monetary policy (the regulator raised the rate by 1%, that in the current environment can be equated to a standstill). The third factor was the pressure of another round of geopolitical tensions. Trilateral meeting in Minsk on the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine was postponed. But the euro, pound and yen could make against the dollar correction. Even good statistics from the US could not stop it, indicating that the dollar is overbought and several market in anticipation of the Fed meeting on monetary policy until no longer willing to buy it.

Forecast for the week 15 — 19 December

Stock market

A key event in the coming week will be the release of the Fed decision on monetary policy, which will be held on December 17. Although it is not the only event that can excite the market in the next 5 working days, but first things first. The next meeting of the Federal Reserve will be the first after the knob turned fully quantitative easing program. At this stage, no one expects that the Fed will switch to start raising rates. Therefore, the main focus will be on the accompanying statement. If the regulator it will retain the phrase «long time» in relation to the current minimum level of interest rates (the more that you can not rush with the tightening as inflation remains under control, as made clear data on producer price index and consumer price index will be published shortly before the decision), US stock indexes have every chance to resume growth, especially as a result of the correction last week, they were down to levels quite interesting to open long positions. Dow Jones is against this background may try to return to the area of ​​the resistance level 18000. Nasdaq may be of interest for purchases at prices rebound on the level of 4,165.00 .. The German DAX obtain a catalyst for movements in the form of data on the index of business activity in the industrial and service sectors in Germany and the eurozone. Will also be published the results of research on business sentiment and ZEW institute IFO. Any signs of further deterioration of the economic situation in the largest economy in the composition of the monetary unit will be able to reinforce expectations of an early launch of the European Central Bank a full program of QE, which will support the index, targeting a return to the level of 9800.00 and, further, to 10075 in the event of a breakthrough. Data on business activity in the industrial sector and publishes China. The index fell in November to 50 watershed that separates growth zone from the zone of recession. If he goes under this mark, there will be new signs of the continued cooling of the economy of China. In general, it can put pressure on Asian markets, particularly in Hong Kong HSI. However, this dynamic indicator can trigger the growth expectations of additional stimulus from the People’s Bank of China. Against this background, HSI may resume growth to the level of 23626, the more that week he finished not far from a pretty strong support 23070.

Commodities

Precious metals will also wait for news from the US. Even the slightest hint from the Fed that the period of low interest rates will be long enough can return the interest in gold and silver. In this case, the assets are able to return to the levels of 1239.49 and 17.512, respectively, with the possibility of further growth in the event of a breakthrough. If there was evidence that the rate increase can be expected sooner than expected, the interest in precious metals can be reduced, which would be a natural consequence of a drop in prices.

Quotes of Brent crude may continue to decline, as the three largest oil-producing countries in OPEC got involved in a price war in an attempt to maintain their market share. It is possible that behind them and the rest will follow. In addition, the market may continue to win back the reduction in global demand forecasts. Thus, the black gold is enough reason for the further decrease in the level of $ 60 per barrel, a breakthrough which will be the signal to fall to around 56 dollars. Although it is possible that from current levels will still upward correction, but long-term it will likely not be as at a higher level can be activated again sellers.

Foreign exchange market

The dollar / ruble is likely to continue to show a relatively high volatility. New week the couple can start further growth, playing new lows on oil. Although in the future is still not excluded short-term pullback. It is possible that the central bank intervened in the case of Russia with interventions to stabilize the exchange rate. Such a strong weakening of the Russian currency looks threatening financial stability. However, given the events of recent weeks, when the CBR actively sell the currency, the ruble continued to fall after the short-term pullbacks, casts doubt on the effectiveness of this measure. In addition, the ruble continues to put pressure on the geopolitical situation. Trilateral meeting of the contact group to resolve the situation in Ukraine again did not take place. Now, according to some, it was moved to December 19th. Thus, it is possible that the pair USD / RUB update highs in the level of 59 rubles to the dollar.

Quite interesting and dynamics can be pair USD / JPY. December 14 in Japan will hold elections for the lower house of parliament. According to a survey party leader Shinzo Abe. Thus, if the Liberal Democratic Party will win, with high probability it will be possible to wait for the conservation of the course, which is held in Japan up to the current moment. Against this background, the pair may resume growth, as in the «Abenomics» the tendency to limit monetary easing, massive fiscal stimulus of growth and structural reforms in the economy.

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Overview of the main global financial markets this week 8 - 12 December 2014 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners