Overview of the main global financial markets this week 5 — 9 January 2015

Rounding out the week for the stock market was not easy, because there are some serious concerns about the global economic outlook. Indexes finished it in «red». The general trend escaped only Hong Kong HSI, which was able to demonstrate a symbolic increase of 0.46%. Japan’s Nikkei lost 3%. US Dow Jones and NASDAQ for the week fell by 0.58% and 0.43%, respectively. And even less aggressive Minutes of the last meeting of the Fed failed to permanently reverse the situation, though, and allowed the tools to recover some of the losses. The German DAX also came under pressure and fell by 1.07%. And a role in this was played and the situation around Greece, which casts doubt on the integrity of the euro zone and its economic recovery.

Precious metals, despite the relatively strong data on US labor market (in December was created 252,000 jobs, which exceeded the forecast at 240 000 Unemployment Rate / p decreased to 5.6%) and very weak data on the consumer price index in Eurozone still managed to finish the week on a positive note. On the one hand, it was caused by the dynamics of stock market indices, on the other hand, the events in France, where there was a series of terrorist attacks. As a result, gold finishes week resulted + 2.84%, 4.25% silver added.

Brent oil again updated lows. Quotes of the asset at the close of the week amounted to 50.03 dollars per barrel, and in the course of trading reached a level of 48.89. The fact that neither the events in France, endangering the second largest economy of the eurozone, nor the threat of a Greek exit from the monetary unit, not the position of the largest oil producing countries in relation to production volumes have not yet allowed prices to gain a foothold below 50 suggests that asset «groped» still short-term «bottom». Add a bit of optimism Posts bankruptcy of one of the US companies engaged in the extraction of shale oil.

In the currency market USD / RUB again showed an increase of 5.71%. The ruble is still under pressure of falling oil prices. Weakness and demonstrates the common European currency. For the week EUR / USD is losing 1.35%. During the five-day working quotations reached a minimum at the level of 1.1753. Thus, the pair has updated 9-year low. There are too many factors that are not going to benefit the euro. This is the probability of a Greek exit from the monetary unit, and events in France, and the fall of the consumer price index to a value of 0.2%, which increases the likelihood of a full-scale launch of QE.

Forecast for the week 12 — January 16

Stock market

The coming week is not too rich in a variety of reports, although some releases will still be able to excite the markets. US indexes at the beginning of the week with the absence of catalysts may continue downward correction. Dow Jones for the purpose of rollback may be the level of 17275. Nasdaq may return to the level of 4083.40. But overall sentiment regarding the US market remains positive, especially because there is a chance that the Fed will refrain from start raising rates. And that makes these points interesting enough to enter the purchase with the objectives of 17692 and 4245.85, respectively. Unless, of course, the data on retail sales, labor market and consumer confidence will not give reason to doubt the stability of the US economic recovery. And if the data on the consumer price index will be released below expectations, it will only strengthen the market in the idea that the Fed in April will not raise rates, which could have a Indexes additional support. German DAX has a chance to continue to decline to the support level 9495. The situation in the euro area remains very tense and need to wait for the imminent start of the economic recovery is not yet so much. Although more evidence of economic weakness and falling price pressure (final index of consumer prices in the euro area in December will be published on Friday), the higher the likelihood of triggering the European Central Bank QE. This may support the European indices. Therefore, after the rollback has a chance to resume growth. Asian indices in the medium term also look quite attractive for purchase. The key point in their support act expectations of new stimulus from the central banks of Japan and China. Against this background, Hong Kong HSI index may return to the district level 24352. Nikkey looks attractive for shopping in the area of ​​16640.

Commodities

Precious metals, which traditionally act as a safe-haven, it may try to continue to grow on a background of continuing tensions in France. Also of interest to gold and silver can be kept under the influence of the ongoing correction in the stock market. In addition, at this stage fears that the Fed will raise rates in April weakened somewhat, which also may benefit gold and silver. Thus, it is possible that after a gold target the 1221.02 level to rise to the level of 1233.08 with a further target at 1239.49. Silver to continue to grow, it is necessary to gain a foothold above the level of 16.459. In this case, the primary goal of the movement can be a mark of 16.753.

Quotes of Brent crude ended the week in the area is strong enough to support 50.00. Technically, it allows you to wait for the correction in the level of 51.95 dollars per barrel, and if prices are able to overcome it, then, to 54.80. Short-term optimism may be due to hope for further out of the game slate of projects (the first bankruptcy has become known). But in general, the trend of the asset is clearly remains bearish. This is facilitated by fears of further decline in demand for oil in the world market. Therefore, short-term reversals can be perceived as a good point to enter short positions.

Foreign exchange market

The stabilization of oil prices could have a ruble short-term support, returning it to the district level 57.50. Although we should not forget that the holiday weekend in Russia ended and the market can return speculators who at each reduction pair USD / RUB will be included in long positions, pushing it up to the district level and below 60.9030, 64.1791 to in the case of his breakthrough. However, if we take into account the fact that, together with speculators in the market return and exporting companies, which have recently been actively selling foreign exchange earnings, it can be assumed that the new Russian currency antirecords still coming week will not install.

EUR / USD updated 9-year low. Prices could finish the week above the 1.1800 level. However, the situation in the euro area remains extremely tense (both economic and political) and it allows you to wait for further reduction of quotations couples especially provided that the data on industrial production and trade balance will show a fall. After breaking 1.1800 mark, in order to reduce the level of 1.1645 could be.

Against the background of weak data on the consumer price index falling can resume and a pair GBP / USD. The aim of the movement can become a mark 1.5030, a break of which would open the way further down to 1.4950.

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Overview of the main global financial markets this week 5 - 9 January 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners