Overview of the main global financial markets this week 2 — February 6, 2015

According to the results of last week, stock indices showed positive dynamics and completed it in the «green». Again leaders, only this time of growth, were American benchmarks. For the week Dow Jones and the NASDAQ rose by 3.88% and 2.01%, respectively. The German DAX updated maximum (10988) close to the psychologically significant resistance 11000 that restrained growth, but, nevertheless, over the past 5 days index added 1.09%. Asian indices were also able to gain a foothold. Japan’s Nikkei added 1.63%, Hong Kong HSI showed a symbolic increase of 0.31%. Positive dynamics of the stock market causes a «parade of softness.» From the beginning, several of the Central Bank announced the easing of monetary policy (only this week did banks of Australia, China, Romania, Denmark), which gives reason to wait for «acceleration» of the world economy.

Precious metals, despite the fact that several attempts to resume growth, completing a week with losses. Gold becomes cheaper by 3.81%, silver is reduced by 2.96%. What at first looked like a technical correction, later grew into a movement caused by fundamental factors. Actions of central banks in the direction of easing monetary policy reinforced expectations that the world economy will accelerate the pace of growth. In such conditions, interest in safe assets traditionally reduced. But the strongest decline in precious metals showed on Friday after the published data on employment in the US non-farm payrolls. Figure exceeded the forecast (257,000 vs. 234,000), demonstrated positive dynamics and change in average hourly wage. Against this background, the market once again return expectations that the Fed could still raise rates as early as this year.

Brent crude oil for the past week showed the most impressive growth since June 2014. Quotes asset added 11.9%. In the first place, the asset will continue to be influenced by reports that the US continues to reduce the number of operating rigs. And Friday’s data again confirmed this trend. According to Baker Hughes per week reduced their number again. This time by 83 to 1140. An additional factor is the support and actions of central banks in the direction of monetary policy easing, as stabilization and the resumption of global economic growth will boost demand for the black gold.

In the currency market USD / RUB showed a decline. For a week the ruble rose by 4.56%. A key factor in support for the Russian currency was the price of oil. Strengthening of the ruble could have been more pronounced if not for a number of factors that inhibit growth. These include and continuing geopolitical tensions in Ukraine, and concerns about the possible extension of sanctions, and coming in February payments on external debt.

Forecast 9 — February 13

Stock market

The first half of the coming week in terms of the planned to the publication of macroeconomic statistics is expected to be not too interesting. Therefore, we can assume that stocks will continue to move the influence of gender previously formed attitudes. Against this background can not exclude the short-term downward correction (especially after Friday’s NFP data revived expectations of Fed rate even in the current year). Dow Jones may revert to the level of 17516, Nasdaq has a chance to drop in the level of 4165.07. In the future, the dynamics of US indexes can cause data on retail sales in the United States, a report on the weekly address for unemployment and consumer confidence. Strong data could trigger further weakening of the indices to the lower boundary, set the range, because once again return fears that the Fed may start tightening monetary policy. The German DAX index is in the region of the maximum, and still, technically high probability of a downward correction, the purpose of which may be the level of 10300. Among scheduled for publication makrostatistiki, special attention should be data on the growth rate of the German economy in the 4th quarter. Signs of a slowdown in GDP growth may have on the benchmark additional pressure, although in the medium term, against the background of the ECB’s decision to launch a program of quantitative easing, DAX retains the potential for growth. Hong Kong HSI index has a chance of re-growth of the resistance at 25,000, which is still holding back the development and upward movement. In the event of a breakthrough will be glad to further move up to 25300. Support for the index can get on expectations that the measures taken by the People’s Bank of China in the direction of easing monetary policy will have a positive impact on economic growth. His contribution to the dynamics can make and data on the consumer price index in China. Reduced price pressures may contribute to further action controller in the same direction. Nikkey also has chances to rise in order to level 18080.

Commodities

Position of gold and silver a little shaken. However, the yellow metal is still strong enough to support the above 1233.00. But, if it is passed, it is possible that we will see a return to the level of $ 1,200 per troy ounce. Silver level after a 16.730 has a chance to fall to 16,000. At this stage, much will depend on incoming macroeconomic data. On the one hand, the easing of monetary policy, which has taken a number of central banks suggests that regulators do not yet see the optimistic outlook for the economy and it could benefit safe precious metals. However, recent reports from the US back waiting for the Fed rate increase, making the dollar more attractive in comparison with the gold and silver that do not generate interest income. Therefore, if the US data and reports on the GDP of Germany and the euro zone will indicate the regions economic recovery, precious metals have the potential to decrease the specified level. Otherwise, they will be quite interesting for shopping at such low marks for 1260 with the objectives of gold and 17,500 of silver.

Quotes of Brent show an upward correction. While prices failed to gain a foothold above the maximum, marked on February 3. But if the quotes black gold will overcome the mark of 58.90 — 59.00, the next target will be the level of 60 dollars per barrel and further 63,30. The impression is that bad news is no longer afraid of oil (take a lack of response to messages from Saudi Arabia to reduce prices to Asian buyers in March). In addition, the market still can maintain expectations of slowing growth in oil production in the United States in the medium term, which only intensified after Friday’s data from Baker Hughes. In addition, do not forget that from the beginning, several central banks have announced the easing of monetary policy that has the potential to have a positive impact on the economy and trigger the growth of demand for oil. In particular, it is, and the People’s Bank of China. After all the Celestial Empire is the largest importer of oil in the world. Although only these factors are unlikely to be long enough to break through key resistance at $ 60 per barrel. Therefore, it is possible that black gold in the coming week will be held in the range of 53.00 — 60.00.

Foreign exchange market

Pair USD / RUB reaffirms its close correlation with the dynamics of oil prices. Thus, the main factor supporting the ruble in the coming week will be a rise in prices for oil. Provided that they continue to move to the area of ​​$ 60 per barrel, the Russian currency may strengthen to the level of 64.17 with a further target at 62.60 rubles per dollar. Also for the benefit of the ruble can go and a meeting between Putin, Hollande and Merkel on the situation in Ukraine. While on its results known only that worked out the final agreement, which is likely to be unveiled on Sunday, following a telephone conversation in the Russia — Germany — France — Ukraine. If the agreement will contain proposals that promote conflict resolution, the ruble may strengthen. Otherwise, this factor will become a pejorative connotation. Brake on the strengthening of the ruble is the fact that in February, Russian companies will have to repay about $ 15 billion on foreign loans.

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Overview of the main global financial markets this week 2 - February 6, 2015 | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners