Market Review for the week from 8 to 12 April

The U.S. dollar continued to remain under pressure in the period from 8 to 12 April as the negative economic data from the U.S. labor market and business optimism index, published a week earlier, did not significantly reduce the chance that the Fed will turn off the program of quantitative easing in the near future . The Dollar Index USDX, reflecting its dynamics relative to the six major world currencies, has lost 0.3%. And «American» feel insecure against all competitors except the yen.

The EUR/USD continued the upward trend that began in the previous week on a weaker dollar because of the negative macro data from the U.S.. Quotes of the single currency in a moment reached the level 1.3150, when the market resumed publishing vendors euro and moved them down. On Friday April 12 she again tried to support the strength of 1.3070, but resisted. Important macroeconomic statistics from the euro area in the period have been published. Toward the close of the week EUR/USD quoted at 1.3090, up 0.8% from the previous closing

The British pound also slowed in growth, touching the resistance 1.54. Data on industrial production brought a small pleasant surprise, but failed to significantly affect the presentation of foreign exchange market participants on the status of the UK economy. The situation is still tense, but because of the higher levels of the pound is difficult to move up. At the end of the reporting period, quotes in GBP/USD remained virtually unchanged.

The Australian dollar was marked by rapid growth once tried to support the strength of the 200-day moving average located at 1.0390. On Thursday, April 11, it came very close to the most important technical level of 1.06, then slightly adjusted downwards. During the week, its quotations grew by 1.2%.

The Japanese yen continues to lose ground in the wake form a government and the Bank of Japan in inflation expectations after the announcement of details of the program of quantitative easing. USD/JPY has already come close to the level of 100 yen to the dollar, down from some adjustment. Toward the close of the week, it was quoted at 99.00, down 1.3% from the previous close.

Forecast for the week, 15 — 19 April

On the coming week are planned for key economic reports that could have a significant impact on the dollar. The U.S. currency is now feeling much less confident than a few weeks earlier. She also began to lose correlation with stock indices, which are continually enhanced in March. Obviously, the negative data from the labor market triggered a «reset» of its prospects in the minds of foreign exchange market. Of the highlights of next week, you can select a report on the consumer price index (April 16, 16:30 GMT). Inflation now may be the only obstacle to QE3, but because the market may be sensitive to the data. However, the Fed’s forecasts targetiruemomu parameter PCE Inflation while invested in the necessary framework, and the dynamics of prices is not worried about the controller.

For market makers are working with the euro, the main event will be the publication of the report on the traditional index business sentiment from the Economic Research ZEW. Eurozone economy is still in recession. In previous months were planned to improve the business optimism, but in quantitative terms, while economic growth is not reflected. The EUR/USD moved away from annual lows, and for further up it needs improving macroeconomic data. Figures from the ZEW can give her that support, but hardly ambitious. We believe that the ceiling of the upward trend which emerged after testing 1.27, is the area of ​​1.3270.

British pound to go through a hard week. GBP/USD pair has stolen up to a serious level of resistance in the 1.54. She had already risen quite high with lows in 2013 in 1.49, but the situation in the UK economy remains tense. On Wednesday, April 17 (12.30 GMT), the Bank of England will publish the minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee, and on Thursday (12.30 GMT) will release a report on retail sales for March, published by the Office for National Statistics. These events could affect the prospects of sterling, and they will largely determine its behavior on the coming week. In terms of technical analysis, the upward trend for the pair GBP/USD will remain relevant as long as it is quoted above 1.5230.

On the economic calendar for the Australian dollar does not appear important events. With some stretch to those include the publication of minutes of the last meeting of the Reserve Bank, but the situation around its monetary policy is very clear and therefore there is hardly a surprise. We believe that after the «roll back» down from the mark of 1.06, the AUD/USD once again try to return to growth. Of interest are long positions in 1.0480 with stops at 1.0390.

The USD/JPY is corrected after rapid growth. The 100 yen per dollar is an important technical and psychological level. However, a program of quantitative easing is no less impressive. We believe that after the correction of the dollar will return to growth against the yen. Goal of the movement is now possible to define the highs in 2009 at 101.90.


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Market Review for the week from 8 to 12 April | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners