Market Review for the week from 15 to 19 April

The U.S. dollar showed a mixed performance during the week as the world’s financial markets are slightly feverish. Gold was marked by the biggest decline in the last thirty years, and volatility in the stock markets has increased significantly. The major indexes were observed that two percent decline, the growth, but ultimately ended the week on a minor note. The Dollar Index USDX gained its follow-up about 0.15%. Significant macroeconomic statistics that can have a significant impact on its position in this period have been published.

At the opening week, the euro looks very strong and signaled a possible test 1.3270 resistance. But on Wednesday, April 17 bidders for the pair EUR/USD experienced a bit of a shock after the head of the Bundesbank, Jens Weidman, said the ECB may lower the refinancing rate in the near future. Euro came under massive pressure, but it did not last very long. The possibility of further reducing the already long been discussed, and, in fact, is not a big surprise. As a result, at the close of the week EUR/USD is quoting at 1.3085, close to the opening.

The British pound lost its position in the first half of the week as economic data came. Sterling has risen high enough to annual lows, and on the negative news background tried to generate an impulse down. However, after the publication of minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England renewed speculation associated with additional quantitative easing. All goes to the expectations of expanding the program could prove to be premature, and it provides support to the pound. GBP/USD pair rose from week lows of 1.5230 and is preparing to make an attempt to overcome the resistance of 1.54.

The Australian dollar has fallen significantly in value after the Chinese came negative GDP data for the first quarter, and gold has fallen off by more than 10% on Monday. AUD/USD is literally flew down and reached the support in the 1.0290 area, where he is trying to find the bottom.

The Japanese yen resumed its fall after a relatively deep correction that began after testing resistance around 100 yen per dollar. After the summit, with the «Big Twenty» began to come rumors that the Japanese do not make accusations of competitive devaluation, USD/JPY once again gearing up to try the strength of the mark of 100 yen to the dollar.

Forecast for the week, April 22 — 26

On the coming week is not scheduled to significant macroeconomic releases that could have a significant impact on the dollar. Of all the events in the economic calendar, you can select a report on orders for durable goods and revised GDP data. However, these indicators are unlikely to have a direct impact on the «American». They can trigger the movement in the stock markets, which will pull in changes in the dynamics of the dollar. Overall macroeconomic statics of the United States weakened in recent years, which suggests that the Fed will continue to QE3 all in 2013. And because the main reserve currency feels a lot less confident now than just a month earlier. However, if the sale of the stock markets continue, it may trigger a stronger dollar.

Bidders for the single European currency will expect an accurate reading on the PMI indices in Germany, France and the euro area, as well as the business climate index from the Center for Economic Research Ifo. The situation in the euro-zone economy is still tense. Peripheral countries are in recession, and the leading stagnate and surprises are expected. However, the euro slipped from February almost a thousand basis points, and therefore moves down reluctantly, requiring serious fundamental reasons. We believe that the pair EUR/USD in the coming weeks will go into a sideways trend with fluctuation range 1,3270-1,28.

The main event of the week for the British pound will be the publication of preliminary data on GDP for the first quarter of 2013. The country’s economy, «Albion» is in a recession, and the main macroeconomic indicator is expected in the negative area. Prerequisites for a positive surprise in the first quarter was not enough. The only white spot has been the growth of retail sales and industrial production of some stabilization at low levels. We believe that the report will be negative for sterling. Those, however, the focus of the Bank of England and now the possibility of additional easing. While the controller is not defined with additional incentives pound can feel confident and able to move to a mark of 1.55, but it is still vulnerable and we recommend to refrain from long positions.

The Australian dollar is trying to find under the soil after an extensive sales arranged by investors due to the negative data on GDP and reduce the price of gold. The slowdown in the economy of the «Middle Kingdom» is not of a catastrophic character, and the gold is not the only resource is mined in the country. We believe that the AUD/USD pair will attempt to gain a foothold in the hallway 1,0290-1,0390, but it is also vulnerable and long positions are not safe.


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Market Review for the week from 15 to 19 April | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners