Market Review for the week from 11 to 15 March

The U.S. dollar lost some of their positions in the period from 11 to 15 March in the global currency market. The Dollar Index USDX, which is its relation to a basket of six major currencies, in the middle of the day on Friday, March 15th for the week lost 0.2%. Positive economic data from the U.S. supported the positions of the main reserve currency of the world, but it could not be fixed at a higher level. After six weeks of growth in a row dollar somewhat tired and may need to be corrected. However, its outlook remains positive.

The EUR/USD has found support in the 200-day moving average, which is traditionally an important technical support level. At the moment, its value is 1.2950. After several unsuccessful attempts by the U.S. to overcome this level against good data from the U.S., the single currency ends week with a growth of 0.4% at the level of 1.3057. Significant macroeconomic statistics from the euro zone during this period have been reported.

The British pound started the correction against the dollar after a fall in the last four weeks. The index of industrial production has brought another unpleasant surprise, down by 1.5% in January. Immediately after the release of the data sterling dipped to 1.4830 level, but at such low values ​​was in high demand. Toward the end of the week the pair GBP/USD quoted at 1.5110 area, adding up to a week of about 200 basis points or 1.2%.

Australian dollar advantage of the weakness of its American counterpart, and continued to grow. After the Reserve Bank of Australia took a break in the cycle of lower interest rates, and inflation crept close and targetiruemommu level, he feels much more confident. In addition, labor market data confirmed the validity of the position controller. The economy added 71,000 in February jobs (estimate 10,000). The AUD/USD at the close of the week has tested the strength of the resistance 1.0385.

Japanese Yen showed some resistance in the period. Even the approval of candidates Haruhiko Kuroda as head of the Bank of Japan was seen calmly enough. Although it should be noted that it was expected and already incorporated into prices. Couple is just «settles» after rising 500 points the last two weeks.

Forecast for the week, 18 — 22 March

The main event of the coming week, could have a significant impact on the performance of the greenback will be the outcome of the next meeting of the Federal Open Market USA. However, from him not expect any surprises. From the minutes of the previous meeting of the participants, it became known that some of them have expressed concern about the growth rates of assets on the balance of the Fed. This triggered a rise in optimism about the prospects for the U.S. currency. But Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke hastened to reassure the financial markets, saying that the potential benefits of continuing QE3 greatly outweigh the risks. Expectations are now reduced to the fact that the regulator will continue the program until the end of 2013. We believe that the text of the official statement does not undergo significant changes.

Tenderers for the single European currency on the week will be full of important macroeconomic reports. On Tuesday 19 March, the Centre for Economic Research ZEW will publish a progress report on the state of business confidence in Germany and the euro zone. On Thursday 21 martaPMI release release the Index of purchasing managers in Germany, and on Friday the Ifo provide data as the business climate.

Macroeconomic data from the euro area has recently become worse. But the single currency remained under pressure. The above releases can support it. Especially when you consider that it is now very close to the technically important support level 1,30-1,2950. Positive data can increase prices to around 1.32. Otherwise, to overcome the 1.30 support could send prices to 1.2850 area. If the releases will be neutral, it will play into the favor of the dollar, which now feels very confident.

British pound also be «hot» week. From Tuesday to Thursday, every day will go a report on consumer price inflation, the minutes of the last meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England and the figures on retail sales for February. The situation in the UK economy is now heavy. Macroeconomic data regularly is negative. Increasing the chances that the Bank of England may extend the program of quantitative easing. Because we do not expect these releases any good. From technical point of view, the current upward movement is seen as a correction. The nearest resistance level is the area of ​​1.5225. In the case of negative news out there opening short positions with stops near 1.5340 looks attractive ideas.

Australian dollar will have to prove their claim to the viability of growth. To do this he will have to overcome the resistance of 1.0385. Macroeconomic statistics, able to support him during this period will not be published. Minutes of the Reserve Bank is also unlikely to be able to help him with something. In the monetary policy of the regulator is no uncertainty. From the standpoint of technical analysis, penetration 1.0385 opens the way to 1.0480 area.

The USD/JPY is corrected after rapid growth. However, the position of the Japanese currency is very weak. We expect the resumption of movement towards 100 yen to the dollar in the coming weeks.


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Market Review for the week from 11 to 15 March | Web Trade For All - Forex trading, analytical reviews of the market and help for beginners