Market Review for May 13

Gaps were, but such minor, and talk about what they do not. In general, the currency had a whole day in the consolidation as investors digested the information received over the weekend and preparing for the economic events of the week. As a result, EUR/USD closed the trading day of 1.2970 and GBP/USD — in the region of 1.53.

As we can see from the article Hilzenrata did not make the market more experience than what we have seen before on rumors of her appearance. All concerned about the timing of, and so far do not give The Official hints about their plans, swings on this topic, we do not see. EUR/USD opened the day at 1.2971, came down to a minimum 1.2941 and closed at the opening.

GBP/USD also tended to «south», and after the breakdown of the intermediate support of 1.5340 the pair managed to reach a daily low of 1.5276, but after a few hours back in the 1.53 area.

USD/JPY is still growing up during the Asian session, reaching a maximum of 102.14 for the day of the opening level of 101.86. However, the mark of 102.00 is not so easy to break it, so the rally petered out already during the European session, and even exceeded the forecasts of retail sales in the U.S. were not able to return to the couple above. Most likely to break the four-year high need another major catalyst, but for now we will observe a «consolidation on the doorstep.»

Forecast for Tuesday, May 14, 2013

In a special way you should get the report released yesterday on retail sales. Although the increase in spending, excluding spending on fuel and vehicles was low, the main index rose by 0.6%, with the highest growth rate this year. Labor market recovery and growth of the stock market, has given Americans the confidence in the future and, hence, the desire to spend more. This report was thus missing a puzzle in the U.S. economic picture that drew the latest developments. All indications are that the Fed really can start out in the fall of QE3.

Thus, this week advised to bet on the USD — for him and the power of the Fed’s more aggressive policies against the background of all this softness. By the way, on a weekend Draghi reiterated his attitude to stimulate the economy, saying that considering the purchase of securities backed by assets, to support lending. ECB gives a clear signal that it is ready to act in case of a weakening economy, the economic data of the E-17 are of even greater significance in the current environment. Today is the publication of a study by ZEW economic sentiment in Germany, and in spite of the forecast growth rate, there is a chance to see the disappointing data. In this case, the support 1.2960 in EUR/USD could be passed on to the next target 1.29.

Despite the fact that the GBP/USD has suffered a loss yesterday, ahead of the pair has the potential, if not increase, the consolidation near current levels. Today will be published data on the housing market from the RICS, which is expected to increase in the price index. If the prospects of the sector will recover, it could support a pair: the index did not go into positive territory in June 2010. Thus, we expect consolidation above 1.53 with a potential return above 1.5340 in the case of positive indicators.

Most patient want to congratulate once again — try 100 on USD/JPY held and there is still room for growth of the pair, given tacit consent to the representatives of G7, which did not comment on pair trades around 102.00. Add to that the recent increase in demand for foreign assets by Japanese investors, and the level of 103.00 by the end of the week seems to be achievable.


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