Market Review for March 27

With the advent of the medium currency resumed its decline with the start to grow again fears about the future of the euro area in the context of what is happening in Cyprus. As a result, EUR/USD closed at 1.2750, and the GBP/USD — 1.5130 at.

EUR/USD break below 1.28, rolled down to a minimum 1.2750, near which to trade during the U.S. session. Poured oil on the fire investigation trust E-17, confirmed the decline of the index in the business community from 91.1 to 90. Then attention shifted to Italy, where he is still an unresolved issue with the new government, and it is a month after the election. Naturally, the rumors that the Bank of Cyprus remained money, because they are already flowed through the British and Russian offices.

GBP/USD is under pressure, but is attempting to recover. Pair from the opening level 1.5155 1.5091 rolled to a minimum, but was able to recover above 1.51 to end the trading day. His contribution to the weakening of the British pound made economic indicators released Wednesday. Current account deficit was worse than expected: -15.1 billion from 12.8 billion previously. Besides, annual GDP growth has been revised for a fall from 0.3% to 0.2%. Basically, the entire blame for significant volumes of imports, which have a negative impact on the trading activity. All of this was further evidence of weakness the British economy, but the weakness is in the last year.

USD/JPY also demonstrates multidirectional movement, at first tried to recover from the opening level of 94.43 to 94.90 daily high, but then rolled down to a minimum 94.01 and ended the day in the open. This only confirms the dynamics of uncertainty prevailing in the market in the light of what is happening in the eurozone.

Forecast for Thursday, March 28, 2013

While with Cyprus remains one thousand uncertainties, additional pressure on the EUR/USD and perform complex political situation in Italy. Bersani once again trying to negotiate, and once again left with nothing. At this time, the coalition failed to Berlusconi «People of Liberty». Against this background of growing speculation about the likelihood of the downgrade of Italy agency Moody’s, which has resulted in the growth yield on five-year government bonds: 3.65% from 3.59% previously. By the way, the profitability of the German Bund, meanwhile, is down — investors quickly pereparkovali their assets in «safe haven.»

Today is Thursday, Bank of Cyprus will open with restrictions in operations. Perhaps we can learn and the extent of the losses of uninsured depositors their deposits in the Bank of Cyprus. Given that the issue of capital flight after the approval of the restrictions acquires new rumors, it is possible that the percentage of charging deposits will reach 80-100%. In that case, even support for 1.27 EUR/USD will not be the limit. If the sample fails, further goal to 1.2640 and 1.26. Can make a contribution, and data on the labor market and retail sales in Germany.

GBP/USD may yet recover. Despite yet another confirmation of the weakness of the UK economy, it is hoped that all the negative trends in the past year, and all business activity will begin to increase. Published today, the data can drive growth in the case of a couple of pleasant surprises. The immediate aim is moved to 1.52.

USD/JPY will soon receive an incentive: the closer the end of the week, the lower the amount of repatriation flows. Also today, pay attention to the planned appearance of the new head of the Bank of Japan. If Kuroda does hint at the next meeting or slightly open a veil of secrecy over the plans of the Central Bank to stimulate the economy, USD / JPY could take a course to the nearest resistance 95.00 and then 95.30.


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