Market Review for March 14

Morning trading was completely focused on the commodity currencies: NZD fell on the first speech, the head of the central bank, and then rose to AUD positive data on the labor market. But then seized the initiative pound. As a result, EUR/USD completed a day of 1.30, and the GBP/USD — 1.5075 at.

EUR/USD spent most of the time within the range 1,2980-1,2950, ​​but it broke the lower boundary to reports that the Bank of Italy asked the national banks that suffered losses on the capital of the first level, not to pay dividends this year . In addition, Spain has attracted little demand for their long-term obligations, referring to a lack of investor. This sent the pair to 1.2910 minimum, but the support break again took place, and we saw a tremendous pullback on technical factors, and because of the dynamics of GBP/USD, which has become the root cause correction. Once again, we saw the closing of 1.30.

GBP/USD is still played his card. We talked about the oversold, and a couple of feet up for a long time undecided, but yesterday it all happened. Open for 1,4920, GBP/USD most of the day was kept close, but with the arrival of the U.S. session, the pair broke through some pretty strong resistance levels, triggering a cascade closing shorts and peaked 1.5118. At the closing price fell back to the 1.5070 area.

Most frustrating indecision USD/JPY. For some reason, investors have decided to wait for the results poostorozhnichat and hearings in the Japanese parliament. Topic of the future, Mr. Iwata very concerned about the financial community, although it is unlikely to seriously affect the policies of the Bank of Japan. Fears are so strong that even the positive data from the U.S. could push the pair above 96.60. As a result, pair closed on 96.10.

Forecast for Friday, March 15, 2013

EUR/USD again in 1.30 and again below the 200-day moving average. EU summit continues and there is nothing we have not heard a positive and not received. Rather, politicians will attempt to make concessions, surrendering to the onslaught of social protests. Perhaps we give general comments on a «soft» measures «austerity.» Nebula and the uncertainty is likely to recover only the pressure on the euro, and positive data from the U.S. can return to a couple of lows yesterday. Pay attention to the U.S. CPI and data on consumer confidence — can be another portion of optimism after the recent retail sales.

GBP/USD was surprised by their activity on a fairly empty calendar, and then at night almost got a pretty interesting article in the Guardian, in which he is the King, who recently played for the expansion of the quantitative easing monetary policy, said that the recovery «is not far off.» Here he refers to the rather stable export demand, and explains all the problems of the eurozone failure UK (which is responsible for nearly 50% of exports, as the largest trading partner of Albion). Such unexpected comments questioned the probability of QE or adjustments in interest rates. So, and GBP/USD will be the new base for further growth. After the breakdown of 1.5130 the pair can aspire to the area of ​​1.5170.

It would be silly to keep talking about the great growth potential of the USD/JPY, if more than one argument is negative. Recall the past: the first news of Kuroda pair failed to break 95, then on his first speech prices almost did not move, but now online series of very strong U.S. data continues to show its yen steadfastness. Is this not a sign of the fact that at the moment the upward movement has exhausted itself. If so, you can be afraid for Iwata, because the health of Abe, and another for mood Kuroda, but the bottom one — the number of long positions on the pair has reached a critical point. Today can confirm our theory: if Iwata confirmed, and the pair could not break this news to 97.20, it’s time to turn off long positions.


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