Market Review for April 24

Wednesday was boring and emotionless. Major currency pairs were sitting in a narrow range, showing the half-hearted attempts to break through the next technical levels. As a result, EUR/USD ended the day near 1.3010 and GBP/USD — in the area of ​​1,5260.

Weak IFO data helped send the pair EUR/USD 1.2953 to a minimum, but the correction was so rapid that it is not even reflected on the crosses. So, the business sentiment index was 104.4 compared to the projected 106.4, while the expectations component fell to 107.2 against 109.5 predicted. For the second consecutive month of decline in business confidence shows as weak demand and the weather is too cold, put pressure on the indicator. All of this is consistent with the latest trend of decline in the largest economy E-17, and only escalate the situation before the next meetings of the ECB. However, the pair managed to close the trading day at the opening level.

In GBP/USD is also nothing interesting, although in comparison with the single currency Pound felt more confident. EUR/GBP has continued to decline from a timid opening level of 0.8526 to a minimum 0.8496, closing the day in the field of the same 0.8530.

Just a little bit, and USD/JPY will be to recognize the most boring couple on the FOREX. Ordeal in respect of 100.00 resistance continues, but so far everything below the daily highs reached earlier, that too is not happy. The pair opened the day at 99.43, peaked at 99.75 and completed trades in 99.50.

Forecast for Thursday, April 25, 2013

Taking into account the latest data from Berlin, it’s all quite well within the overall scenario of recession in the eurozone, which will anticipate the negative German GDP for Q1. So far, all this could not have a sufficient impact on the fixed income markets of Italy and Spain, as investors hope that the long-awaited capital flow Japanese insurance companies will take it in the bonds of those countries. And while this factor holding back massive decline in EUR.

To date, no economic releases scheduled interesting, but the representative of the ECB Asmussen may be more important than usual. The fact that the market is actively circulated about reducing rates are already at the next meeting of the ECB, so that any comments of officials can cause an interesting dynamic. Asmussen has been seen in «soft» statements, so that new hints on the old circumstances can still help the EUR/USD consolidating below 1.30 with the immediate goal at 1.2960 and then 1.29.

According to the UK we finally waited main intrigue of the week — Q1 GDP. If it is confirmed return to the territory of the growth of the economy, it will be able to neutralize the negative left by the decision of Fitch’s downgrade. In addition, the couple will receive the support and understanding of what a strong need for further promotion of the Bank of England yet. Thus, the GBP/USD is 1.53 and the chance to go head to 1,5340.

USD/JPY, meanwhile, can not break through the defense, although rumors of capital outflows continue to ply on the market. Weak economic data from the United States continue to put impede couple: the volume of orders for durable goods fell by 5.7% m/m, after rising 4.3% in February. Thus, comes the understanding that if the sample 100.00 and will be, it is certainly not for the American indices. Meeting of the Bank of Japan and its semi-annual report on the economy may become the impetus to the further weakening of the yen. If this event does not work, have to wait for FOMC decision and nonfarmov.


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