Market Review for April 11

Thursday did not change the balance of power, and even the publication of data on the U.S. labor market was not able to pull the currency pairs of the coma into which they had fallen in the early weeks. As a result, EUR/USD ended the day near 1.3110 and GBP/USD — 1.5380 close.

Necessary to pay tribute, EUR/USD made attempts to gain a foothold above the nearest resistance 1.3130, which, in principle, it failed. The pair opened at 1.3068 day, peaked at 1.3137 and retreated under the impact of the stronger-than-expected U.S. data. The number of unemployed people who applied for benefits, fell this week to 346 thousand from the previous level of 388 thousand This report caused a sigh of relief after the recent poor record of employment.

GBP/USD was able to achieve the goals we had expected, despite the absence of any economic releases. The pair opened at 1.5328 day, broke above resistance 1.5360, 1.5410, and reached a maximum of completed trades near that level.

USD/JPY was stuck as a barrier to 100.00 at the beginning of the week, and can not move, even though the day was made up 99.94. Words Kuroda limited further opportunities for growth, as it said that the goal in the form of 2% inflation will be flexible. The market took it as a «back up» after previous «ultrasoft statements» about the absolute overarching objective to reach this level by any means in the next two years. However, the couple is still held in 99.50.

Forecast for Friday, April 12, 2013

Finally, came the most exciting day of the week. Today will be published data on retail sales in the U.S., which can be a major catalyst in order to wrest from a range of currency pairs. There is a very good chance to see a decline in consumer spending after prolonged growth (since last October) and the sharp appreciation in the previous month (1.1%). It is expected that the volume of retail sales in March will not change, showing zero growth. And even that would be enough to cause a weakening USD. However, if the index goes into negative territory, the extent of motions will be impressive.

Therefore, the EUR/USD break 1.3180 we expect that the pair will open the way to a continued growth in the area of ​​1.33. GBP/USD, in that case, surely consolidate above 1.54 with the further aim at 1.5460.

In addition, today’s report on U.S. retail sales could be crucial for the USD/JPY, as the only strong data can be passed resistance of 100.00. The fact is that the longer a couple is struggling with the mark, the more likely correction in area 97.20. However, the incentive in the form of strong data could target a couple in the area of ​​100.45 and then 101.30.


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